Forex Today: FOMC Minutes reinforce 'higher-for-longer' as markets digest the ceasefire
Here is what you need to know for Thursday, April 9:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds firm near 99.10, supported by safe-haven demand late in the American session with expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will remain cautious on easing. Markets reacted swiftly after the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, which largely confirmed that policymakers remain cautious and in no rush to cut rates, reinforcing a “higher-for-longer” stance.
The Minutes showed that officials are increasingly concerned about persistent inflation risks, particularly those stemming from elevated energy prices linked to ongoing Middle East hostilities. While the Fed acknowledged some cooling in parts of the economy, it emphasized that inflation progress remains uneven, keeping the bar high for any policy easing.
At the same time, geopolitical developments continue to cloud the outlook. Despite headlines of a temporary ceasefire between the United States, Iran and Israel, markets remain skeptical as conditions tied to the agreement have yet to be fulfilled, and tensions persist across the region.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.49% | -0.72% | -0.59% | -0.21% | -0.86% | -1.41% | -0.69% | |
| EUR | 0.49% | -0.24% | -0.09% | 0.28% | -0.36% | -0.95% | -0.21% | |
| GBP | 0.72% | 0.24% | 0.13% | 0.52% | -0.11% | -0.69% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.59% | 0.09% | -0.13% | 0.36% | -0.26% | -0.84% | -0.11% | |
| CAD | 0.21% | -0.28% | -0.52% | -0.36% | -0.61% | -1.18% | -0.48% | |
| AUD | 0.86% | 0.36% | 0.11% | 0.26% | 0.61% | -0.58% | 0.13% | |
| NZD | 1.41% | 0.95% | 0.69% | 0.84% | 1.18% | 0.58% | 0.72% | |
| CHF | 0.69% | 0.21% | -0.03% | 0.11% | 0.48% | -0.13% | -0.72% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD surged near the 1.1720 region earlier in the day but are now pulling back toward 1.1650 as the stronger USD and lingering Eurozone growth concerns limit upside attempts.
GBP/USD gained traction, trading around the 1.3380 level, hovering near multi-week lows, after trading as high as 1.3484.
USD/JPY fell toward the 158.70 zone, retracing some of its losses but still in the red due to geopolitical risks.
AUD/USD clung onto large gains near the 0.7030 price zone, though falling from earlier heights near 0.7080. The pair is weighed down by risk aversion and a cautious outlook despite relatively stable domestic conditions.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil prices fell sharply to the $95.00 per barrel as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz seems to have dissipated momentarily, with supply risks still in focus despite fragile ceasefire headlines.
Gold trades near $4,709, supported by geopolitical uncertainty earlier in the day, but remained in a neutral zone as risk dissipated.
What’s next in the docket:
Thursday, April 9
- Germany Trade Balance
- US PCE Price Index
- US GDP
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Personal Income
- US Personal Spending
- NZ Business NZ PMI
- CNY CPI
- CNY PPI
Friday, April 10
- Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices
- Canadian Employment data
- US CPI
- US Factory Orders
- US Michigan Consumer Index’s
- US UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations
- US UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation
- US Monthly Budget Statement
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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