China: Inflation and trade data signal firmer cycle – ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO expects China’s CPI inflation to rebound to around 1% year-on-year in February, driven by Lunar New Year spending and base effects after a 0.2% reading in January. It also looks for a smaller annual decline in producer prices and stronger combined January–February export and import growth, consistent with a firming global business cycle led by the tech and AI sectors.

CPI rebound and exports seen improving

"China – Consensus expectation including ours is for CPI inflation to have risen back to around 1% y/y in February on the back of Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday spending and base effects from a shifting LNY break, after a drop to 0.2% in January."

"Meanwhile, the annual decline in producer prices is expected to have eased further in February, partly on the back of rising commodity prices."

"Growth of exports (and in its slipstream imports) in January/February combined is expected to have accelerated compared to December, in line with a firming of the global business cycle led by a tech/AI boom."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)