Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC steadies near $66,000 as markets await first Warsh-led Fed decision

• Bitcoin pauses its recovery and steadies at $66,000 on Wednesday ahead of the Fed interest rate decision.
• US-listed spot ETFs recorded a mild inflow on Tuesday, after weeks of outflows.
• Market participants await more cues about the Fed’s policy path before placing fresh directional bets on BTC.

Bitcoin (BTC) steadies near $66,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday as investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision. Institutional demand shows slight improvement as spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded a mild inflow on Tuesday, after weeks of outflows. Traders are closely monitoring the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh for clues on the future policy path, which could determine the Crypto King’s next directional move.

Warsh’s first FOMC meeting could set BTC’s near-term direction

The US Fed is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision later on Wednesday and is widely expected to leave policy rates unchanged. Furthermore, the central bank is seen removing the easing bias – according to comments from several Fed members at the last meeting – as inflation is proving stickier than anticipated. Hence, the focus will be on updated economic projections, including the so-called dot plot.

The meeting also marks the first FOMC decision chaired by Kevin Warsh, making his remarks a key focus for financial markets. Investors will keep a close eye on whether Warsh signals a different approach to monetary policy and Fed communication than his predecessor, Jerome Powell.

For risky assets such as Bitcoin, a dovish tone from Warsh could weaken the US Dollar (USD) and improve risk sentiment, supporting BTC’s ongoing recovery. However, if the central bank maintains a hawkish stance, BTC could face renewed selling pressure as investors reduce exposure to risk-sensitive assets.

Institutional demand shows early signs of returns

SoSoValue data showed that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a mild inflow of $10.06 million on Tuesday, following outflows of $64.09 million the previous day. This mild positive flow suggests that the selling pressure may be easing after heavy outflows seen in recent weeks. However, for a sustained recovery in BTC, these flows should remain positive and strengthen in the coming days.

Long-term holders are no longer selling BTC

The K33 Research reported on Tuesday that the long-term holders are holding BTC. So far this year, BTC aged 2 years or more has seen exceptionally low reactivation, with only 218,421 BTC reactivated by June 6, far below recent years and indicative of much weaker on-chain selling pressure, as shown in the chart below.

“The decline in old coin activity suggests long-term holders are less motivated to sell, a common sign that the bear market is closing in on an end,” reported the analyst. 

Meanwhile, 79% of BTC’s circulating supply is now held by long-term holders. This new all-time high reflects continued accumulation and the gradual shift toward a more constructive market environment.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Steadies after recent rebound

Bitcoin price trades at $66,000 on Wednesday, pausing after its recent rebound. BTC sits below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $70,351 and the 100-day EMA at $73,084, while the 200-day EMA at $78,942 remains a distant cap, suggesting rallies are likely to face overhead supply.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is hovering in the low-40s, hinting at subdued bullish conviction despite a positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram reading above zero, which merely signals that the latest rebound is corrective within a broader capped structure.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA near $70,351, followed by the 100-day EMA at $73,084 and the broken upward trendline region around $73,715, which together form a dense barrier for buyers. Beyond that, the 200-day EMA at $78,942 and the horizontal resistance level at $84,410 act as higher-limit caps if upside momentum extends. 

On the downside, immediate support is located at the horizontal level near $64,005, where a decisive break would expose a deeper retracement and reinforce the prevailing bearish tone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)