Oil: Supply shock revives stagflation worries – OCBC

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that Brent is nearing USD100 as flows through the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely to resume early, pushing markets into an Oil–stagflation channel. They warn that another month of outages could drive inventories toward operational lows, forcing demand destruction and magnifying both inflationary and growth headwinds even as signs of softer demand emerge.

Brent surge threatens growth and inflation

"Oil climbed on renewed geopolitical uncertainty, steering markets into the oil-stagflation channel."

"Crude surged, with Brent nearing USD100/bbl, as an early resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz looks increasingly unlikely."

"Another month of outages could push crude inventories close to operational lows, leaving demand destruction as the main rebalancing mechanism."

"This would magnify both inflationary and growth headwinds."

"Despite the supply shock, demand is already softening: flight cancellations are rising, refinery utilisation is falling, and the EU is exploring measures to optimise jet fuel use."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)