Canadian Dollar edges lower as safe-haven demand, policy divergence underpin US Dollar

• USD/CAD trades around 1.3975 on Thursday, up 0.23% on the day as demand for the US Dollar strengthens.
• Concerns over a potential collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire continue to drive safe-haven flows.
• The Bank of Canada maintains a cautious tone as markets monitor inflation risks and geopolitical tensions.

USD/CAD advances toward 1.3975 on Thursday at the time of writing, up 0.23% on the day, with the US Dollar (USD) benefiting from renewed safe-haven demand amid persistent tensions in the Middle East.

Market sentiment remains fragile as investors question the durability of the ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran. The exchange of attacks between the two countries in recent days has fueled fears of a renewed regional escalation. According to the Wall Street Journal, US President Donald Trump stated that recent US military operations were a response to Tehran’s downing of a US Apache helicopter rather than the start of a broader conflict. Meanwhile, CNN reported that diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran remain on track, although this has not been enough to fully restore risk appetite.

This cautious environment is supporting the US Dollar, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounding toward 100.05 at the time of press. More growth-sensitive currencies, including the Canadian Dollar (CAD), are struggling to benefit from an environment dominated by geopolitical uncertainty.

The Greenback is also supported by expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Data released on Wednesday showed that Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation accelerated to 4.2% YoY in May, its fastest pace in more than three years and more than double the Fed’s 2% target. The report reinforced expectations that the central bank could raise interest rates later this year, pushing US Treasury yields higher.

In Canada, the Bank of Canada (BoC) left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% at its June meeting. Governor Tiff Macklem noted that persistently elevated energy prices could require additional policy tightening, while also acknowledging that further US trade restrictions could weigh on growth and justify additional easing. Deutsche Bank noted that the central bank is keeping its options open amid heightened uncertainty, while Rabobank argued that a technical recession and weak investment activity limit the scope for rate hikes.

This divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed), which remains focused on elevated inflation, and the Bank of Canada (BoC), which is increasingly concerned about economic growth, continues to provide fundamental support for USD/CAD. Investors now await upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) data and any new developments regarding Iran to assess the pair’s near-term direction.