SpaceX IPO Debuts at $135 at a $1.75 Trillion Valuation on June 12 — Where Could SPCX Trade in the First 90 Days?

TradingKey - SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) officially hit the market on June 12 with an IPO price of $135 a share. This marks the biggest IPO ever, raising $75 billion at a post-money valuation of $1.75 trillion, which dwarfs the previous $35.4 billion record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019. In the final days leading up to pricing, premarket traders in secondary markets had already been moving the stock between $129 and $137. The $135 opening price is the exact expectation the market was looking for.

Additionally, MSCI on June 9 announced that it would make SPCX eligible for early inclusion in large IPOs, so they will start adding it to their index on June 13 (T+1). This means from the second day of its listing, this IPO will have significant demand to flow into index funds. With an initial IPO of only 4% float, today's price discovery will be as much about how the markets function as it is about the merits of the company.

What the S-1 Financials Actually Show

The S-1 that SpaceX filed with the SEC discloses the company consists of three segments, with very different unit economics:

Connectivity (Starlink) is the star of the show, generating $11.387 billion in 2025 revenue and $4.423 billion in 2025 operating profit, for an adjusted EBITDA margin of 63%: the only part of the business that is making a profit. Subscriber growth from 4.5 million at the start of 2025 to over 10.3 million by early 2026. There are three tiers of Starlink revenue:

1. Consumer ($120/month): The typical consumer package.
2. Enterprise/Maritime ($5,000+/month): The higher-end package for enterprises and maritime businesses.
3. Government and Defense ($$$$): Undisclosed, but presumably much higher.

The company also disclosed that they serve customers in 164 countries.

Space (Falcon 9 launches, Starship development, Starshield) has also been in the black since 2025 after delivering approximately 130 Falcon 9 missions in 2025, at an average of $67 million to $97 million per mission, for a global commercial launch market share above 60%. Starship has spent over $15 billion through 2025 with multiple successful test flights to validate the program and move it toward commercial launches.

AI (xAI, Grok, X, data centers): The AI division of the company, including xAI, Grok, X and AI data centers, was a $3.201 billion revenue producer in 2025, but a $6.355 billion loss maker. SpaceX spent $12.7 billion in capex for AI in 2025, 61% of the total group capex in 2025 and 76% in Q1 2026.

Here is what SpaceX's S-1 shows for the aggregate of the three business segments: $18.674 billion revenue in 2025 for $6.584 billion adjusted EBITDA, $4.937 billion net loss. The loss since inception is $41.3 billion.

The Valuation and What It Requires You to Believe

SpaceX opened at approximately 94 times 2025 revenue at $135/share. It was 58x to 65x forward 2026 revenue, which Wall Street expects will be between $22 billion and $24 billion. So, for a company that is making billions, we are already pricing in venture-stage optionality. However, Starlink alone, by applying a standard SaaS multiple for a business of that size, could be worth $400 billion to $600 billion today. The remaining $1.1 trillion to $1.35 trillion of the price requires belief that Starship will eventually have a significant commercial operation, that the orbital data centers will come together, and that xAI will compete in the AI arms race with OpenAI and Google. Morningstar’s bear-case fair value estimate sits at $600 to $800 billion. Both bulls and bears make sense; that's why the first public earnings report in November 2026 will be critical for long-term holders.

The other big factor for this IPO is the 4% float, which equates to approximately $70 billion in publicly-traded shares out of the $1.75 trillion total market cap. Insider shares cannot be sold for another 180 days. For the next six months, there is only 4% float for the world to transact on. Furthermore, MSCI will begin adding SpaceX to its portfolio starting tomorrow, June 13, for index-tracking ETFs that include a combined $15 to $20 trillion AUM, which would amount to potential index-tracking money in the $35 billion to $50 billion range against a $70 billion public float. Inclusion in the S&P 500, which currently requires four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability for qualification, is not on the horizon for the foreseeable future, and given SpaceX's recent xAI losses, I do not see this as a possibility this fiscal year.

SPCX DEAL SUMMARY

• IPO price:  $135 per share (fixed)
• Shares offered:  555.6 million
• Total raise:  ~$75 billion
• Valuation:  $1.75 trillion
• Free float:  ~4% of total shares
• Lockup:  180 days on insider shares
• 2025 revenue:  $18.674 billion
• 2025 net loss:  $4.937 billion
• Starlink 2025:  $11.387B revenue, $4.423B operating profit
• Starlink subs:  10.3 million as of early 2026
• xAI op. loss:  $6.355 billion in 2025
• MSCI inclusion:  T+1 (June 13), both MSCI World and ACWI
• S&P 500:  Not eligible — requires 4 quarters of GAAP profit
• First earnings:  Expected early November 2026
• Week 1 range:  $135–$180 (base); above $180 (bull); below $130 (tail risk)
• Month 1 range:  $130–$165
• 3-month range:  $120–$200 (catalyst-dependent)

SPCX Price Scenarios — Week 1 Through Three Months

The table below compares the performance of past similar tech IPOs. Twilio was up +27% week 1, +42% month 1, +125% 3 month. CrowdStrike was up +33% week 1 and +22% month 1. Zoom was up +5% week 1, +45% month 1 and up 54% 3 months. Facebook was down -17% week 1, -18% month 1. DoorDash down -17% week 1. Snap down -7% week 1, -13% 3 month.

In other words, high-hype IPOs tend to either open well and hold (Crowdstike and twilio) or open close to IPO price and then retrace as investors take profits. A 20-40% retrace 90 days out from listing (before first earnings) is a very common pattern.

For SPCX specifically, the mechanical MSCI demand beginning June 13 and 4% float are tilting the odds in SPCX’s favor for the base case this month.

Week 1 base case $140-$175 with an opening cross above 135 very likely with a tight float and 2x oversubscription. A pop above 180 is possible with retail participation as high as the dedicated retail event (1,500 investors) on June 11 indicated.

Month 1 base case: $130 to $165. Mean reversion from IPO holders taking profit is likely to kick in during weeks two to four, supported by MSCI buyers as floor.

Three-month base case: $120-$200 wide variance due to the unknown around the first earnings. Q2 Starlink subscriber number and indication that xAI capex may be peaking are two metrics which will move the needle the most for SPCX in this time frame. Above 11 million Q2 Starlink subscribers, implies Starlink growth story still holds and upper end of range could be attained. If xAI continues spending aggressively on capex with no revenue to support it, the stock valuation discussion will remain heated, and lower range of the base case.

Bottom Line

SpaceX prices at $135 a share today, becoming the largest IPO ever. Starlink is the fundamental anchor, which brings $11.4 billion of revenue at a 63% EBITDA margin on 10.3 million subscribers. xAI is the major near-term risk to profitability with its $6.36 billion operating loss. MSCI index funds from June 13 are a structural buyer in the 4% initial float. My week 1 base case is $140 to $175 and in month 1 it will be $130 to $165. Three months from now I would say $120 to $200, with the wide range reflecting my uncertainty on Q2 Starlink and xAI capex metrics. The only thing that matters to me is how much subscriber growth Starlink delivers and when we have to show a peak in xAI capex. First public earnings November 2026 is the true valuation anchor.