Japanese Yen holds steady ahead of Trump–Xi summit, US Retail Sales data
- USD/JPY flat lines around 157.85 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- US inflation came in hotter than expected, with the PPI rising by 6.0% YoY in April.
- Trump will hold a high-stakes meeting with Xi Jinping in China.
The USD/JPY pair trades on a flat note near 157.85 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The major pair steadies as traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US President Donald Trump-Chinese President Xi Jinping summit in Beijing and the release of the US April Retail Sales data later on Thursday.
The latest US inflation data came in hotter than expected, fueling expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain elevated long-term interest rates. This, in turn, could underpin the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY).
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 6.0% YoY in April, following the 4.3% seen in March, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday. On a monthly basis, the PPI inflation rose to 1.4% in April from 0.7% in March and much higher than the estimate of 0.5%.
Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that Trump arrived in Beijing for a state visit to China, where he will meet with Xi Jinping to discuss topics including trade and the Iran war. This is the first state visit to China by a US leader in nine years.
Nonetheless, the potential upside for the pair might be limited amid fears of further currency intervention from Japanese authorities. Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said last week that “regarding recent currency moves, we confirmed that Japan and the US have been coordinating very well and have maintained close communication.”
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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