Australian Dollar weakens to near 0.7250, Trump–Xi talks in focus
- AUD/USD softens to around 0.7250 in Thursday’s Asian session.
- US producer prices surprise with the largest rise in four years.
- Trump will hold a high-stakes meeting with Xi Jinping in China.
The AUD/USD pair loses ground to near 0.7250 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. Hotter-than-expected US inflation data provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). Traders will closely monitor the US President Donald Trump-Chinese President Xi Jinping summit in Beijing, and the release of the US April Retail Sales data later on Thursday.
US producer prices posted their biggest increase in four years in April, underpinning the Greenback. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday revealed that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 6.0% YoY in April, compared to the 4.3% prior. On a monthly basis, the PPI inflation rose to 1.4% in April from 0.7% in March and much higher than the estimate of 0.5%.
Traders will take more cues from the US Retail Sales report on Thursday. The market expects the Retail Sales to show an increase of 0.5% MoM in April, compared to 1.7% in March. Any signs of hotter inflation reports could boost the USD and act as a headwind for the pair.
Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that Trump arrived in Beijing for a state visit to China, where he will meet with Xi Jinping to discuss topics including trade and the Iran war. This is the first state visit to China by a US leader in nine years. Any positive developments surrounding the US-China talks could lift the China-proxy Aussie as China is a major trading partner to Australia.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Recommended Articles
