NZD/USD treads water above 0.5850 following China’s Trade Balance data

• NZD/USD remains steady following the release of China's Trade Balance data for March.
• Market sentiment improves as reports suggest further US–Iran talks to secure a longer-term ceasefire.
• US Vice President JD Vance signaled ongoing diplomacy and a potential path toward US–Iran de-escalation.

NZD/USD inches lower after registering 0.5% gains in the previous day, trading around 0.5860 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair remains subdued following the release of China's Trade Balance data for March. It is important to note that any change in the Chinese economy could impact the NZD as China and New Zealand are close trade partners.

In Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, arrived at CNY354.75 billion, narrowing sharply from the previous figure of CNY1.5 trillion. Exports fell 0.7% year-over-year (YoY) in March from a 19.2% increase seen in January-February. The country’s imports jumped by a whopping 23.8% YoY in the same period vs. 17.1% recorded previously.

However, the downside of the NZD/USD pair could be restrained as the US Dollar USD) may struggle amid easing risk aversion, which could be attributed to the reports that the United States (US) and Iran may hold further talks to secure a longer-term ceasefire before the current two-week truce ends.

US President Donald Trump said that Iran had made contact and is now looking to resume negotiations. Vice President JD Vance also indicated ongoing diplomatic efforts and a possible path toward US-Iran conflict de-escalation. Vance stated that recent discussions over the weekend were constructive, providing US officials with deeper insight into Iran’s negotiating stance.

Markets scale back hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets, with easing inflation risks tied to a potential long-term US–Iran ceasefire and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has pressured oil prices.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the Iran-related energy shock has not yet affected long-term inflation expectations, adding he expects price pressures to return to the central bank’s target within a year.