Goldman Sachs raises 2026-end gold price forecast by $500 to $5,400/oz

Jan 22 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs has raised its end-2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce from $4,900/oz earlier, noting private-sector and emerging market central banks' diversification into gold.

Spot gold XAU= climbed to a peak of $4,887.82 per ounce on Wednesday. The safe‑haven metal has climbed more than 11% so far in 2026, extending a blistering rally that saw it jump 64% last year.

"We assume private sector diversification buyers, whose purchases hedge global policy risks and have driven the upside surprise to our price forecast, don't liquidate their gold holdings in 2026, effectively lifting the starting point of our price forecast," the brokerage said in a note dated Wednesday.

Goldman Sachs expects Western ETF holdings to rise as the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut the funds rate by 50 basis points in 2026.

The brokerage also expects central bank buying to average 60 tonnes in 2026 as emerging market central banks are likely to continue diversification of their reserves into gold.

Meanwhile, a sharp reduction in perceived risks around the long-run path for global monetary policy would pose downside risk to gold prices if it were to cause liquidation of macro policy hedges, Goldman Sachs said.