Trump and Iran to sign nuclear deal in June after ceasefire that reopens Strait of Hormuz

A possible Iran nuclear deal by June going viral after the odds on Kalshi climbed to 32%, a new all time high. That came just as Donald Trump said he would stop planned attacks on Iran for two weeks if Tehran agrees to reopen the Strait of Hormuz fully and safely.

Trump posted the update on Truth Social after saying he had spoken with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir. He said both men asked him to hold back the force that was set to be sent to Iran that night. Trump then added that:

“The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution.”

Trump tied Hormuz reopening to Pakistan ceasefire draft

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was the one who asked Trump on Tuesday to give a two week extension to his threat against Iran unless Tehran accepts a deal that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

In a post on X, Sharif also asked Iran’s leaders to open the strait for two weeks as “a goodwill gesture.” He then called for all sides to observe a two week ceasefire so diplomacy could try to end the war.

Sharif wrote, “We also urge all warring parties to observe a ceasefire everywhere for two weeks to allow diplomacy to achieve conclusive termination of war, in the interest of long-term peace and stability in the region.”

Trump said Washington had already done what it wanted militarily. In his post, he said the United States had “already met and exceeded all Military objectives.” He also said the U.S. and Iran were “very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran.” Then he added another key point. He said Iran had already sent a 10-point proposal, and he called it “a workable basis on which to negotiate.”

At the same time, there is still one major missing piece from the ceasefire. No public response from Iran had arrived by the end of the source material. So the pause depends on whether Tehran accepts the terms, especially the demand for the “complete, immediate, and safe” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Traders pile into crypto as Iran deal odds climb and oil drops

Markets reacted fast once Trump said he was suspending attacks on Iran just before his 8 p.m. ET deadline. Oil fell hard, with West Texas Intermediate down about 9% to around $102 a barrel. In crypto, traders started leaning back into the big names.

Bitcoin traded at $70,786.2, up 2.29%. Its trading volume stood at $71.26 billion, up 21.74%, while market cap sat at $1.41 trillion. Ethereum traded at $2,179.3, up 2.38%. Its volume was $59.64 billion, up 23.65%, and market cap came in at $264.24 billion.

Solana had the strongest gain out of the four. SOL traded at $84.04, up 4.06%. Its volume hit $14.21 billion, up 30.31%, with market cap at $48.27 billion. XRP traded at $1.3538, up 2.01%. Its volume reached $3.33 billion, up 7.98%, and market cap stood at $83.07 billion.

Other broader crypto data also showed a market still on edge. Open interest was 108.82 billion, up 0.51%. Liquidations were 423.52 million, up 27.66%. The Fear & Greed Index sat at 12, which is still in extreme fear territory. Bitcoin dominance rose to 58.74%, and Bitcoin exchange balance increased by 6.62K to 2.46 million. The Altcoin Season Index was 37, marked neutral, and AVG RSI was 56.54, also neutral.