Rivian Automotive's Next Earnings Report on July 30 Could Send the Stock Soaring. Here's Why.

Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) reports earnings later this month. The stakes couldn’t be higher.

Earlier this year, Rivian officially began production of its R2 SUV. This model is the company’s first vehicle priced under $50,000.

Previously, Rivian’s luxury vehicle lineup had starting prices of around $70,000 or greater. Given that 69% of Americans want to spend less than $50,000 on their next vehicle purchase, getting an affordable model to market enables Rivian to reach tens of millions of new potential buyers.

Scaling the sales of its R2 SUV will be critical for Rivian’s long-term success. While the EV maker has generated positive gross margins in recent quarters, the company still needs to achieve mass scale to reach net profitability. Affordable models will also allow the company to sell to robotaxi operators that lack internal manufacturing capabilities. After all, there’s a reason why Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) placed a $1.25 billion order for up to 50,000 R2s earlier this year.

If Rivian reveals promising R2 production and sales traction, expect shares to reward those efforts. What are Wall Street analysts expecting on this front? Let’s take a look.

Here’s what Wall Street expects from Rivian this quarter

Alexander Potter, an analyst with Piper Sandler, expects positive news this quarter. On July 27, he upgraded Rivian stock to “overweight” from “neutral”, upping his price target from $18 to $20.

Why is Potter so bullish? For exactly the reasons just described. Namely, Potter expects good news for Rivian’s R2 sales ramp.

Potter isn’t coming out of nowhere with his bullishness. Earlier this month, Rivian raised its 2026 delivery forecast to 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles. The company’s previous forecast called for sales volumes between 62,000 and 67,000. The forecast bump was fueled by second-quarter deliveries of 12,194 vehicles, surpassing its previous guidance of 9,000 to 11,000. Current estimates call for roughly 20,000 to 25,000 R2s to be delivered this year.

Image source: Getty Images

Rivian likely pre-released its second-quarter vehicle volumes to shore up its stock price ahead of a stock sale that raised $1.25 billion in financing — a move designed to comply with the covenants of a loan the company previously received from the U.S. Department of Energy.

All of these factors, in combination, have Potter bullish on Rivian stock heading into the earnings release.

“First, RIVN boosted delivery guidance, thanks in part to expensive gasoline and a renewed interest in EVs,” he explained in a note to clients. “Second, Rivian has apparently avoided launch issues with the R2 SUV, a pivotal new product. Finally, a recent capital raise should fund growth while reducing dilution risk.”

I have to agree with Potter’s assessment. Earlier this year, I called Rivian my top growth stock for 2026 based on these exact catalysts. I also stressed Rivian’s potential to sell into the fledgling robotaxi market — a point Potter seems to agree with.

According to a report from CNBC, Potter is impressed with Rivian’s “in-house electronic control units and printed circuit boards, two critical systems for vehicles, which he thinks puts the company on track to be a power player in the future environment and in a strong position to develop autonomous vehicles.”

I view self-driving vehicles as a long-term growth catalyst for Rivian, with R2 sales providing a more near-term opportunity. But these two catalysts are heavily intertwined, and I expect good news on both fronts this quarter.

Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.