13% Below Its IPO Price, Is SpaceX Stock a Buy?

When Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) -- commonly known as SpaceX -- priced its IPO at $135 per share, many said it was too expensive. And when it climbed to more than $200/share within a week, they said it was way too expensive.

But now SpaceX's stock has fallen more than 40% from its high and is trading at about $116 per share as I write this, 13.2% below its IPO price. Is this a sign of more losses to come or a buying opportunity? Here's what investors need to know.

Image source: Getty Images.

What goes up...

SpaceX's business is built on getting things into space. In 2025, the world sent 3,194 metric tons of stuff into orbit, and SpaceX's flagship rocket launch business carried more than 80% of it.

Currently, the company is preparing its massive Starship megarocket for commercial use. Starship's huge 220,000-pound payload capacity would dramatically lower the cost of putting things into orbit and would almost certainly increase SpaceX's already dominant market share.

Meanwhile, the only profitable part of SpaceX's business, Starlink, has successfully built a vast network of nearly 10,000 communications satellites that provide broadband and mobile services to 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries, mostly in hard-to-reach areas. This is expected to be the primary driver of profits for the foreseeable future.

The company estimates that these two businesses together only have a total addressable market of about $2 trillion: less than the company's market cap at its peak. Growth is clearly a major part of the valuation here. So, how's that going?

...must come down

In short, not well. SpaceX estimates an eventual $26.5 trillion market for its AI applications, but right now it primarily just sells compute to other companies. Google's parent company, Alphabet, for example, is renting compute capacity from SpaceX for $920 million per month.

That's a good start, but SpaceX's primary argument is that it can launch data centers into space, where it expects to lower compute costs thanks to the higher concentration of solar energy. But that plan can't get off the ground (literally) until Starship comes online. And SpaceX has now failed to launch its (apparently unlucky) 13th Starship test flight twice but intends to try again on Thursday.

Another delay or an unsuccessful launch would almost certainly send the stock lower. And even if this test flight is successful, many more tests and certifications remain before Starship reaches commercial viability.

Additionally, over the next year, various lockups of insider shares will expire, and up to 1 billion additional shares could be awarded through options, settlements, and the like. If and when those shares hit the market, they'll exert downward pressure on the stock. Downward pressure, without any obvious near-term growth catalysts, is a recipe for further share price declines.

Smart investors should probably wait to buy SpaceX shares, as they're likely to continue moving lower in the near term.

John Bromels has positions in Alphabet. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.