Nvidia's stock is down by 12% from its recent peak.
Its valuation metrics are at their lowest points in five years and compare favorably to other AI hardware companies.
If AI data center spending dries up, Nvidia will still have options.
By most metrics, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) looks like a screaming buy right now. Its stock is down by 12% from its high, but its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is at a five-year low. Its price-to-free-cash-flow ratio is near a five-year low. And both metrics are substantially lower than those of other companies that have benefited from the AI spending boom such as Broadcom and Vertiv.
But worries are intensifying on Wall Street that AI spending at current rates may not be sustainable. So, is Nvidia a buy at today's levels, or should investors wait for a better opportunity?
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Image source: Nvidia.
Nvidia is benefiting from the boom in AI data center construction by hyperscalers like Microsoft and Amazon. But while Nvidia's top-of-the-line graphics processing units (GPUs) and other digital infrastructure products are currently being primarily used for AI, at their core, they're just incredibly powerful pieces of computer hardware.
In other words, even if AI spending were to dry up tomorrow -- which is incredibly unlikely -- Nvidia's products would still be in demand.
Nvidia stockholders have seen this story play out before. In the early 2010s, the power of Nvidia's GPUs as tools for cryptocurrency mining became apparent. GPU prices skyrocketed in 2013 as miners of Bitcoin and other proof-of-work cryptocurrencies snapped up the devices. Between 2013 and 2018, Nvidia's shares soared by2,260%. But by the end of 2018, the GPU cryptomining trend had ebbed, and Nvidia's stock fell by more than 50% from its peak.
Those who held on to their Nvidia shares were smart: The stock was surging again within two years, first from the pandemic-era consumer electronics spending boom and then due to the arrival of the AI megatrend.
Data suggests that we're not even close to the top of the AI spending curve, and Nvidia's products are likely to remain in high demand for years to come.
And even if the AI trend proves shorter-lived than expected, Nvidia's top-tier product lineup is almost certain to be in high demand for quantum computing or whatever the next big thing is.
Therefore, Nvidia looks like a buy right now.
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John Bromels has positions in Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Bitcoin, Broadcom, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Vertiv. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.