TeraWulf (WULF) Stock Forecast: $19B Anthropic Lease Announced; But Revenue Starts in 2027

TradingKey - TeraWulf (NASDAQ: WULF) is currently trading at $23.01, which remains consistent with the downtrend in its chart as it stays in a descending channel since its 52 week high of $29.84, after its random 3 session day swing.

On July 6, the stock moved higher by 13% on news of a 20-year capacity lease deal with Anthropic at TeraWulf’s Justified Data Campus in Hawesville, Ky. which is expected to generate revenues of about $19 billion over the length of the lease. It later dropped by 8.87% on July 7 but moved higher by 12.8% on July 8 when analyst Needham raised its target to $33 and analyst Rosenblatt upped its to $30 as the original concern of revenue not occurring until 2027 faded into the background as the revenue from the size of the new contract. RSI near 50 is a neutral condition.

Bank of America covered and rated TeraWulf stock with a $34.00 Buy rating and Citi followed up with a $36.00 Buy rating. The average price target is now $35.42.

The Anthropic Lease: A $19 Billion Contract That Reshapes TeraWulf's Business

For TeraWulf, it is the largest capacity lease agreement to date, as the 20-year lease with Anthropic at the Justified Data Campus is a further indication that the company is moving away from Bitcoin and towards the artificial intelligence (AI) market. Justified Data will deliver approximately 401 megawatts of the critical IT load for the site, which will see construction begin in phases in late 2027 and become fully complete by early 2028. This translates to a run rate of $950 million in annual revenue on the back of $19 billion of contracted revenue.

While signing this deal, the company also sold 50.1% of its holdings at its Abernathy Joint Venture site in a deal valued at roughly $450 million to a fund that includes Fluidstack that has now seen TeraWulf’s investment at the site increase over 100% while simultaneously providing the liquidity to be used to invest further in AI infrastructure projects where WULF maintains complete control.

That thesis is also supported by the two firms that covered the company. Bank of America has covered the stock with a $34 Buy rating, and Citi followed up with a $36 Buy on the stock.

These firms believe TeraWulf should be looked at more as an AI data centre operator than as a Bitcoin miner. This is an important distinction because data centre operators with longer term agreements with hyperscalers typically command more valuation multiple premiums than a Bitcoin mining operation. 

If annual AI revenue gets close to the $950 million run rate implied by the Anthropic contract and Bitcoin mining becomes secondary in the eyes of the market, that will be a significant change for the stock in terms of its valuation. Simply Wall St increased their fair value estimate to $36.32, from $26.17 on this.

Why the Stock Fell After the Announcement

While the sheer magnitude of the deal is the first thing you'll read about, what investors are really interested in is how long it will take. Revenues from the Anthropic lease won't roll in until H2 2027, giving an 18-month window for the Justified Data Campus to get designed, permitted, built and hooked up to the grid before lease payments start.

The $450 million Abernathy deal gives some extra cash flow, and the Fluidstack-Google financing provides some liquidity, but it's execution that counts. TeraWulf comes to this round of buildout with about $5.8 billion in debt, $3.1 billion of cash and around $540 million of negative quarterly free cash flow, on top of the roughly $900 million raised through an April 2026 common equity offering to help finance AI infrastructure that will further dilute the value of existing shareholders.

Q1 FY2026 was a loss of $427.6 million in the net, mostly due to non-cash fair-value changes and stock comp, while non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was only slightly down to negative $4.1 million, from negative $50.9 million in the preceding quarter, suggesting a move toward break-even business-level operations in the short term. CEO Paul Prager also dumped 137,500 shares, at roughly $3.66 million, on June 29, but he still holds around 40.5 million shares and so his stake is not in jeopardy.

TeraWulf (WULF) Technical Analysis: Descending Channel Remains Intact

TeraWulf (WULF) is currently being traded at around $23.01 mark on the 4-hour timeframe. Price is hitting resistance at the descending trend that started at $29+, with the recent red candles showing there is strong seller interest at the resistance zone. RSI is at neutral levels and has room to move upwards. Key levels: support is $21.47, $19.82, short under $23.00 at $19.82, stop is placed above $25.96, and a close above $25.96 leads the asset to test $27.66.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

• Short entry: Under $23.00, rejected at trendline
• Target: $19.82; cluster with support in channel
• Stop Loss: Above $25.96, trendline breached, bull case
• Anthropic deal: $19 billion; 20-year lease; 401 MW; Hawesville, Kentucky. Revenue starts in H2, 2027
• Abernathy sale: $450 million proceeds from sale of 50.1% of JV to the group including Fluidstack
• Analyst targets: BofA $34 (Buy); Citi $36 (Buy); consensus $35.42

What Is the TeraWulf–Anthropic Agreement?

A 20-year contract for AI capacity at the firm's Hawesville, KY Justified Data Campus was signed by TeraWulf with Anthropic. At full buildout, the contract is expected to generate ~$19 billion in revenue through 2046 or approximately ~$950 million/year in full buildout revenue. 

The campus has 401 MW in Critical IT Load capability and construction is scheduled to begin in H2 2027 for full operations in early 2028. Credit rating on the contract is expected to be investment-grade for financing purposes.

Why Did TeraWulf Stock Fall After the Announcement?

It is more about the execution required to build and deliver what was announced rather than the announcement itself. Even though the lease contract is $19 billion in contracted revenue, there will be no cash flow until H2 2027. 

Investors are taking into account the capital required to construct the campus alongside TeraWulf's existing debt load and negative free cash flow.

Why Are Analysts Raising Their Targets?

Bank of America and Citi both issued Buy Ranks as the firms increasingly think of TeraWulf as an AI infrastructure company rather than a Bitcoin miner. 

By combining the recent announcement with contracts already in place involving Google, Core42, and Fluidstack, TeraWulf's contracted AI infrastructure pipeline is bolstered and it can now be valued using metrics associated with data centre operators. 

The average analyst price target of $35.42 is ~54% higher than current levels, but the key risk is whether TeraWulf can execute on the projects in its pipeline.

Bottom Line

Shares fell to $23.01 following an explosive three-day move on news that TeraWulf signed a $19 billion lease with Anthropic, which was followed by a sell-off driven by questions over when projects will be built and a subsequent upgrade from analysts. 

The news has the capacity to transform TeraWulf's business model, though revenues will not be realized until H2 2027 while the company is working through a $5.8 billion debt load and is expected to be spending significant amounts of money on capital expenditures. 

Bank of America ($34), Citi ($36), and the $35.42 consensus target all suggest upside in the long term provided that TeraWulf hits its targets. Technically speaking, $23.00 is a key support level for the stock, but the stock would look more positive on the charts if it holds above $25.96 for multiple sessions.