Where Will SpaceX Be in 2030?

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public on June 12 and set a record for the largest initial public offering (IPO) in stock market history. CEO Elon Musk's company raised $85.7 billion in a first tranche of public stock sales that valued the company at $1.77 trillion, and its valuation rocketed higher from there. While the stock has seen significant volatility since its public debut, its market capitalization is still above $2.1 trillion as of this writing.

With the company having recorded roughly $18.7 billion in sales last year, SpaceX is currently trading at about 114 times last year's revenue. That's a hugely growth-dependent valuation that is made even more stark considering that the business actually recorded a net loss of roughly $4.9 billion last year. On the other hand, Musk has issued commentary suggesting that the business is on track to grow at an incredible pace that could wind up shattering concerns about the company's valuation profile.

Shortly before the company's IPO, Musk said that he believed SpaceX had the potential to reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. Could that really happen, and what might the business's sales makeup and structure look like by that point?

Image source: Getty Images.

Hitting $1 trillion in sales by 2030 would be an incredible feat

In order to reach $1 trillion in sales by 2030 SpaceX would need to grow its sales 5,248% over its 2025 sales base of $18.7 billion. In other words, the company would have to increase revenue at an average annual rate of 121.6% for five years straight to hit that lofty target in 2030.

Unsurprisingly, many Wall Street analysts have adopted more conservative targets when it comes to modeling SpaceX's 2030 sales performance. Goldman Sachs has weighed in with one of the higher-end sales targets for the business, but it still projects revenue of only $470 billion for the year. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley is forecasting roughly $330 billion in sales for the period, and New Street Research is targeting sales of roughly $195 billion in the year.

In response, Musk said that he would be disappointed if SpaceX did not manage to significantly exceed the current batch of Wall Street sales targets for the business. For what it's worth, Musk also subsequently offered additional commentary on SpaceX's sales outlook, stating that he would be surprised if the business's revenue came in below $1 trillion in 2031. That may or may not be an indication that he is backing off the potential for the business to hit $1 trillion in sales by 2030.

While I think it's very unlikely that SpaceX as it currently exists will be able to approach $1 trillion in sales by 2030, it does seem highly likely that the company's artificial intelligence, Starlink, and rocket launching services businesses will grow at very robust rates. I also think there's a very good chance that Musk will move to merge his SpaceX and Tesla companies sometime between now and 2030 -- a move that could make reaching his rough sales targets significantly more feasible.

Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.