Why Newmont Stock Collapsed in June, And What to Expect Next

Investors went from pricing in record cash flows for Newmont (NYSE: NEM) to panicking over cooling gold prices amid falling production and rising costs. This sudden shift in sentiment triggered a 14.9% drop in June in Newmont's share price, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. That single bad month erased early momentum, leaving the gold stock up only 10% in the first half of 2026.

Is Newmont headed even lower, or is this a prime opportunity to buy one of the finest gold stocks on the dip?

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Why Newmont stock lost its luster

After hitting an all-time high of $5,608.35 per ounce in January 2026, gold crashed into a bear market in June, tumbling more than 25% from record highs.

Despite stubbornly high inflation and the conflict in the Middle East, gold has fallen in recent weeks. Historically, these factors should have fueled a rally in gold since it is considered as the ultimate safe-haven asset during volatile times.

Instead, with annual inflation in May surpassing 4% for the first time since April 2023 and the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates intact, the guaranteed yield from U.S. Treasury bonds continued to win over investors. A restrictive monetary policy simply took the wind out of gold's sails.

As the world's largest gold producer, Newmont's earnings and cash are highly leveraged to the metal, meaning its stock inevitably plunged alongside spot prices.

Should you buy the gold stock before Q2 earnings?

Ironically, the big June drop in Newmont stock follows record-breaking Q1, where Newmont reported all-time cash flows. It also doubled its share repurchase program, authorizing an additional $6 billion in buybacks, and announced a dividend raise.

The problem is that management has also guided for a low production year, estimating attributable gold production to decline to roughly 5.3 million ounces in 2026 from 5.9 million ounces in 2025 due to planned mining sequences and lower ore grades at key sites.

Concurrently, Newmont's projected all-in-sustaining-costs (AISC) are expected to rise significantly to $1,680 per ounce this year from $1,358 an ounce in 2025.

When a gold miner's output falls, even if temporarily, and operating costs rise, its stock becomes hyper-sensitive to spot gold prices. The expected margin squeeze has prompted some investors to take profits ahead of Newmont's upcoming Q2 earnings report on July 23.

Newmont is exceptionally well-financed right now, having exited Q1 with a massive net cash position of $3.2 billion. So if you want exposure to gold, Newmont is a top gold stock to buy on dips.

Neha Chamaria has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.