What to Expect From Nvidia Stock in July 2026: Recovery or Another Leg Down?

Nvidia stock trades near $195, and it has quietly become the worst performer in its own chip group in 2026.

The slide comes as investors question whether the AI boom that powered Nvidia can keep paying off. A delayed mega-IPO has only deepened those doubts.

Why Nvidia Stock Price is Lagging

Nvidia (NVDA) is mostly trading flat this year. Its peers have soared, with the semiconductor ETF up nearly 59% and rivals like AMD and Micron gaining well over 100%. The pain is recent. After a strong 2025, Nvidia stock fell about 18% from its June high, including a 10.7% drop in June alone.

Semiconductor Returns 2026 Early 2026: Charlie Quant Lab

Meanwhile, the wider AI trade has cooled. Reuters reported in late June that OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027 to protect a $1 trillion valuation.

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That matters because it signals caution. When the biggest AI name waits rather than test the market, investors read it as a warning on stretched valuations, and Nvidia is the sector’s bellwether.

The Catalysts That Could Turn It Around

Still, the news is not all bad. Washington has begun issuing licenses for Nvidia to sell its H20 chips in China again, reopening a key market the US had blocked.

Big customers could help too. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet report earnings in late July, and strong AI spending plans would point straight to more Nvidia chip orders.

AI spending faces its biggest test yet: earnings season.Investors will closely watch results from @Microsoft $MSFT, @Google $GOOGL, @Meta $META, @amazon $AMZN & @NVIDIA $NVDA to see whether billions in AI investments are translating into stronger growth.Read more:… pic.twitter.com/4DmMnNa4VL

— Money News Today (@Money_NewsToday) July 3, 2026

One caveat on timing. Nvidia’s own results do not land until late August, so July hinges on these outside events, not the company’s numbers. It is worth noting that Nvidia’s Q1 earnings report landed in May, and April and May were the best months in terms of returns.

NVDA Monthly Returns: Charlie Quant Lab

If the Nvidia stock price follows the same trend, July could be a bullish month, on record.

Money Flow and Positioning Are Mixed

The tape sends mixed signals. Chaikin Money Flow, a gauge of whether big money is buying or selling, has climbed since June 25 and now sits near zero at -0.01. That hints that money is trickling back in early July, which aligns with recovery month expectations shared earlier.

Yet, the CMF must cross above the zero line to confirm buying.

NVDA Money Flow: TradingView

Options lean the same way. The put-call ratio’s volume reading eased to 0.48 while open interest held at 0.82, showing a few more bullish call bets.

NVDA Put-Call Ratio: Barchart

Large traders, however, disagree. Smart money data, per crypto perps, shows a net short of about $16.7 million in Nvidia, the heaviest short among major chip names.

Smart Money Positioning: Charlie Quant Lab

Even with those shorts in place, the setup is unlikely to spark a crash. According to The Kobeissi Letter, leveraged ETF bets on Nvidia total about $5.6 billion against $28.8 billion in daily trading, far tamer than the crowded leverage seen in Korean chip stocks like SK Hynix. That matters for the downside.

Leverage in South Korean chip stocks is out of control:Single-stock leveraged and inverse ETFs tracking SK Hynix now hold ~$19 billion in total assets, more than 4 times the stock's average daily trading volume this year of ~$4.5 billion.At the same time, Samsung has ~$12.4… pic.twitter.com/JJj5ab5U90

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 4, 2026

With little forced leverage to unwind, any further drop in Nvidia stock is more likely to be an orderly slide than a violent, cascade-driven crash.

Nvidia Stock Price Levels to Watch

For now, one number rules the chart. Nvidia lost the $200 level on June 23 and has not reclaimed it. A move back above $200 would flip momentum and open room toward the $207 to $213 zone inside its falling channel.

On the downside, $189 marks the channel floor. A daily close below it would expose a deeper slide. So the setup is binary. Strong AI spending guidance from the big cloud companies in late July, or a firm China deal, could push Nvidia stock back above $200, while fading AI confidence could crack $190.

Nvidia Price Analysis: TradingView

The $200 level separates a July recovery from another leg lower.