How prediction market traders manipulated Spotify's streaming numbers

Spotify confirmed it removed roughly 500,000 artificial streams from Malcolm Todd’s song “Earrings” after the track’s jump to the top of its daily U.S. chart raised alarms from traders. 

Spotify has now said it will be tightening how it publishes chart data following the incident. “Earrings” dropped to fourth place on the charts after the fake streams were removed. 

Can you fake streams on Spotify to win bets? 

Caleb Davies, a prediction market trader from Minneapolis, who downloads and studies Spotify data every morning to inform his bets, noticed something wasn’t right when he saw “Earrings” shoot up overnight. 

Davies, who has earned an estimated $1.2 million across betting platforms, calculated that the jump had a roughly 1 in 77 octillion chance of happening naturally. The Financial Times reported the song had climbed by about 70% in a single day.

Davies believes someone used bots to inflate the song’s streams in order to win money on Kalshi, a prediction market where users bet on which songs will top Spotify’s charts. Spotify confirmed it found evidence of artificial streaming after investigating the claims.

After reviewing the data, Spotify removed the fraudulent plays and corrected its charts. The company also asked both Kalshi and Polymarket to remove Spotify’s logo from their websites. Spotify has reportedly never had a partnership with either platform. The company also said it would be “adding additional checks to the charts before they’re published.”

However, Kalshi had already paid out winners based on the incorrect chart data before Spotify made the correction. The market related to June’s most-streamed U.S. song on Spotify had attracted about $3 million in trading. 

Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said the company is “actively investigating this matter,” but as of now, no one knows who was behind the bot-driven streams or their exact motive. 

Who was affected by the fake streams?

“Earrings” had already been near the top five of Spotify’s U.S. daily chart for weeks prior to the manipulation. The Financial Times made clear that there is no suspicion that the artist, Malcolm Todd, or his team were involved.

Davies pointed out that Polymarket traders probably didn’t profit from the fraud because Todd wasn’t even listed as an option on Polymarket’s version of the market. 

Amanda Fischer, a former SEC chief of staff and policy director at Better Markets, told WIRED that platforms are supposed to verify contracts aren’t susceptible to manipulation before listing them. “It is clear that in this market, and many other markets, they are not doing that,” Fischer said. 

This isn’t the first time prediction markets have faced manipulation problems in 2026. Cryptopolitan reported in April that a Polymarket trader allegedly tampered with a weather sensor at Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport using a hand dryer to win a temperature-based bet worth about $34,000. 

That incident prompted Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin to call for markets to use multiple independent data sources rather than relying on a single feed. 

Davies told WIRED that he will be stepping away from chart-based markets due to the risks despite their history of profitability. Kalshi still lists dozens of contracts tied to Spotify and Billboard chart results. 

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