USD/JPY Price Forecast: Reflects volatility contraction amid triangle formation
- US/JPY drops to near 162.20 as hawkish Fed prospects ease.
- Fed’s Warsh states that the central bank has no tolerance for persistently high inflation.
- The US headline and core CPI dropped to 3.5% and 2.6% YoY in June.
The USD/JPY pair trades slightly lower at around 162.20 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The pair edges down as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms due to easing fears of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.18% | -0.13% | -0.05% | -0.04% | -0.17% | -0.11% | -0.05% | |
| EUR | 0.18% | -0.01% | 0.13% | 0.15% | -0.03% | 0.00% | 0.13% | |
| GBP | 0.13% | 0.00% | 0.11% | 0.13% | -0.04% | 0.02% | 0.13% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | -0.13% | -0.11% | 0.00% | -0.14% | -0.08% | -0.01% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | -0.15% | -0.13% | -0.01% | -0.14% | -0.14% | -0.01% | |
| AUD | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.11% | |
| NZD | 0.11% | -0.01% | -0.02% | 0.08% | 0.14% | -0.03% | 0.11% | |
| CHF | 0.05% | -0.13% | -0.13% | 0.01% | 0.01% | -0.11% | -0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.16% lower to near 100.78.
The US Dollar faces selling pressure as traders have trimmed hawkish Fed bets following the release of the soft United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June. The report showed that the headline and core inflation decelerated to 3.5% and 2.6% Year-on-Year (YoY), respectively.
Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated in his testimony on Tuesday that price stability is non-negotiable. “The Fed has no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.” If we get policy right - and we will- the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past," Warsh said.
On the Tokyo front, investors seek fresh cues regarding whether the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again this year.
USD/JPY technical analysis
USD/JPY trades lower at around 162.20, sticking to the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 162.10, which indicates a sideways trend. The formation of an Ascending Triangle chart pattern also reflects a sharp volatility contraction.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51.51 is neutral-to-positive, hinting that buying pressure is steady but not overstretched.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the descending trend line around 162.79, where a clear break would open the way for a stronger bullish extension. On the downside, initial support is seen at the rising trend-line break near 161.79; a downside move below the same would expose the pair to the July 3 low near 160.50.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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