Euro struggles above 1.1400 as fresh US strikes on Iran support USD ahead of FOMC Minutes
- EUR/USD struggles to gain any meaningful traction as Iran tensions underpin the safe-haven USD.
- Rallying Oil prices revive inflation fears, bolstering Fed hike bets and further supporting the buck.
- Traders now look to the release of the June FOMC meeting Minutes for some meaningful impetus.
The EUR/USD pair defends the 1.1400 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it struggles to attract any meaningful buyers on the back of renewed US-Iran hostilities. Traders also seem hesitant and opt to wait for FOMC Minutes for more cues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy path before placing fresh directional bets.
The US military launched unleashed a new wave of strikes against Iran on Tuesday following reports of attacks on three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing the already fragile ceasefire. Traders were quick to price in the geopolitical risk premium amid concerns about a further escalation of tensions, which is seen underpinning the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and acting as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.
Meanwhile, the US also moved to withdraw a key concession that allowed Iran to sell oil on international markets, triggering a sharp rally in Crude Oil prices and energy-driven inflation fears. This lifts market expectations that the Fed will hike interest rates at least once by the end of this year. The outlook, in turn, triggers a fresh leg up in US Treasury bond yields, which is seen as another factor supporting the Greenback.
The USD bulls, however, refrain from placing aggressive bets as the market focus remains glued to the release of the Minutes of the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, due later during the US session. Investors will look for further insight into the Fed's monetary policy outlook, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and providing some meaningful impetus to the EUR/USD pair.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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