OPEC embraces optimism in latest forecast, calls 19% oil demand surge in 2050

OPEC is sticking to its guns while everyone else is screaming climate emergency. The cartel now says global oil demand will hit 123 million barrels a day by 2050, up nearly 19% from today’s levels.

That number is 3 million more than what the group said just last September. It dropped this projection in the latest World Oil Outlook, published Thursday.

It says India will be the biggest driver of that demand, and President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate accord is part of the reason why fossil fuel use will keep rising.

In the report, OPEC says:

“The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will impact climate change negotiations and would most likely result in higher demand for hydrocarbons in general, and oil and gas in particular.”

The group also claims that even a small increase in U.S. oil demand should be expected in the short term. Despite growing global pressure to phase out fossil fuels, the group is doubling down. It’s not considering a pivot to clean energy. It’s saying: more oil, for longer.

OPEC fights the tide while forecasts tighten

This view from OPEC puts it at odds with nearly every major energy forecaster. BP, Bank of America, the International Energy Agency, and Wood Mackenzie all say oil demand will peak in the next ten years.

That’s mostly because China, which has been the world’s largest oil importer, is already cooling off. These forecasters believe slowing economic growth, improved fuel efficiency, and the global shift to renewables will cap demand.

But OPEC’s not buying it. Despite being isolated in its position, it recently started boosting crude supply again. On July 5, the group announced it would return 548,000 barrels a day of idled supply in August.

That’s four times what it originally planned. The markets didn’t panic. Brent crude stayed near $70 per barrel in London this week, giving the cartel some fuel for its bullish call.

Still, this wouldn’t be the first time it has missed. Its Vienna-based secretariat had predicted much higher oil demand in 2024, only to cut forecasts by 32% over six straight months. In 2023, it imposed deeper output cuts, insisting inventories were tight, but the squeeze never happened.

Now, it is projecting oil consumption to rise 9% between 2024 and 2030. That’s the same estimate as last year. But this time, it is backing it with more long-term figures. The report says the growth will come mostly from road transport, petrochemicals, and aviation. And India is expected to take the lead, adding 8.2 million barrels a day by 2050.

India and OPEC+ expected to dominate the growth

While demand is expected to rise, OPEC says its influence will too. The OPEC+ alliance, which includes Russia, Kazakhstan, and other partners, will go from controlling 48% of the global oil market today to 52% by 2050. The shift is expected as production growth from other countries slows down.

Meanwhile, outside OPEC’s report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that U.S. crude stocks rose last week, but gasoline and distillate inventories dropped. Gasoline demand shot up 6%, reaching 9.2 million barrels a day, a sign that American drivers aren’t going electric just yet.

There’s more: oil prices slipped Thursday after President Trump announced new tariffs. Traders are worried this could slow the global economy and drag down demand. By 0052 GMT, Brent crude futures were down 22 cents to $69.97 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate lost 27 cents, landing at $68.11 a barrel.

But one area where demand isn’t slowing is the sky. J.P. Morgan, in a client note, said that global flight activity hit an all-time high during the first eight days of July, with 107,600 flights per day. Flights in China are back to levels not seen in five months. And freight traffic? Still growing, with ports and cargo hubs showing what J.P. Morgan called “sustained expansion” over last year’s numbers.

OPEC is pushing against a wall of doubt, but it’s not blinking. It believes oil isn’t going anywhere, and the bloc is planning for a future where it’s needed even more than today. The rest of the world might call it denial. OPEC calls it a strategy.

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