RBNZ’s Hawkesby reiterates OCR projected to reach 2.5%
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Christian Hawkesby on Thursday reiterated that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is projected to reach 2.5%. Hawkesby further stated that whether the central bank reaches its goal depends on the data.
Key quotes
Challenging time at RBNZ.
RBNZ faces test of trust and confidence in us as an organization.
Central bank focused on mandate.
Central projection for OCR to drop to about 2.50% by end of year, but that could happen faster or slower based on economic recovery evolution.
Speed of New Zealand’s economic recovery will be the key factor influencing the future path of the OCR.
Structure allows for leadership turnover.
RBNZ is not solely about one individual.
Watching second-round impacts from tariff increases.
Big surprise was hit to NZ consumers, businesses.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the NZD/USD pair is trading 0.34% higher on the day to trade at 0.5945.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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