EUR/USD falls to near 1.1650 ahead of German Retail Sales, CPI data
- EUR/USD depreciates as traders adopt caution ahead of Germany’s key economic data.
- Traders will likely observe the July US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index data later in the North American session.
- Fed concerns have deepened after US Vice President Vance confirmed the end of the central bank’s autonomy.
EUR/USD loses ground after three days of losses, trading around 1.1660 during the Asian hours on Friday. Traders await July Retail Sales and August preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Germany later in the day. Focus will shift toward the July US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data due in the North American session.
The EUR/USD pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) recovers ground, as the United States (US) economy grew in the second quarter. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized climbed 3.3% in Q2, a faster pace than the initially estimated 3.1% increase and 3.0% prior.
However, the US Dollar may face challenges amid renewed dovish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he would support an interest-rate cut in the September meeting and further reductions over the next three to six months to prevent the labor market from collapsing, per Reuters.
The concerns over Fed independence have increased following the recent remarks from US Vice President JD Vance. Vance confirmed, in an interview with USA Today on Thursday, the end of the Federal Reserve’s autonomy. He noted: "I don't think we allow bureaucrats to make decisions about monetary policy and interest rates without any input from the people that were elected to serve the American people...POTUS is much better able to make these determinations."
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) July Meeting Minutes indicated that policymakers saw risks tilted to the downside over the next two years, citing weaker growth prospects and the impact of US tariffs. However, some members cautioned that longer-term risks could lean to the upside, particularly amid uncertainties surrounding energy and currency fluctuations.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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