EUR/USD Price Forecast: Keeps bullish vibe, first upside target emerges near 1.1400
- EUR/USD holds steady near 1.1360 in Monday’s Asian session.
- The positive view of the pair prevails above the key 100-day EMA with the bullish RSI indicator.
- The immediate resistance level emerges at 1.1400; the first support level to watch is 1.1315.
The EUR/USD pair trades on a flat note around 1.1360 during the Asian session on Monday. The Greenback steadies as traders are confused by mixed signals on US-China trade relations. Despite US President Donald Trump's claims that there has been progress and that he has talked with China’s President Xi Jinping, Beijing has denied that trade negotiations are taking place, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not announce on Sunday that tariff talks were underway.
Technically, the constructive outlook of EUR/USD remains in place as the major is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The upward momentum is reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 61.80, displaying bullish momentum in the near term.
The first upside target for the major pair emerges at the 1.1400 psychological level. Extended gains could see a rally to 1.1547, the high of April 22. The additional upside filter to watch is 1.1647, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band.
On the flip side, the initial support level for EUR/USD is seen at 1.1315, the low of April 24. Sustained trading below the mentioned level could see a drop to the key contention level at 1.1000, the round figure. The next downside target to watch is 1.0888, the low of April 8.
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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