WTI remains subdued near $58.00 due to Oil oversupply outlook, US-China trade tensions
- WTI depreciated as the International Energy Agency reported that the global Oil market could face a surplus in 2026.
- Oil prices came under pressure amid renewed United States-China trade tensions.
- Crude Oil prices may receive support from growing expectations of further Fed rate cuts in 2025.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price moves little after registering more than 1.5% losses in the previous session, trading around $58.10 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Crude Oil prices declined as the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of an Oil supply surplus in 2026.
On Tuesday, the IEA reported that the global oil market could face a surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day next year, a larger glut than previously anticipated, as OPEC+ members and other producers increase output while demand remains sluggish.
Additionally, Oil prices received downward pressure from renewed United States (US)-China trade tensions, raising concerns that the ongoing feud between the two biggest Oil consumers could further dampen global Oil demand.
President Donald Trump criticized China on Wednesday for its recent protectionist trade policies, threatening additional targeted trade restrictions if China proceeds with imposing new rare earth mineral export controls and increased port fees for foreign container ships in Chinese ports. Beijing also announced sanctions against five US-linked subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean.
However, the downside of Oil prices could be restrained due to rising odds of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025. The lower borrowing cost could support the economic activities in the United States, the world’s largest Oil consumer, which could support crude Oil prices.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank is on track to deliver another quarter-point interest-rate reduction later this month, even as a government shutdown significantly reduces its read on the economy. Powell highlighted the low pace of hiring and noted that it may weaken further. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are now pricing in nearly a 94% chance of a Fed rate cut in October and a 93% possibility of another reduction in December.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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