USD/CHF falls to near 0.7950 due to US-Swiss tariff deal, SNB steady
- USD/CHF depreciates as the Swiss Franc receives support after Switzerland secured a tariff deal with the US.
- The Swiss Franc advances amid rising expectations of the SNB keeping policy rate unchanged at 0% in December.
- CME FedWatch Tool suggests pricing in a 43% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December.
USD/CHF retraces its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 0.7950 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The Swiss Franc (CHF) gains against the US Dollar (USD) after Switzerland secured a deal to lower US tariffs to 15%, a significant drop from the 39% rate applied during the Trump administration. The development offers much-needed relief to a country that had been subject to the highest tariff levied on any developed economy.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) could find further support on rising expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain its 0% policy rate in December, supported by forecasts of higher inflation. SNB Vice President Antoine Martin recently reaffirmed the outlook, saying inflation is “expected to increase slightly.”
The USD/CHF pair gained ground on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) advanced amid declining US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets for December. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that financial markets are now pricing in a 43% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, down from 62% probability that markets priced a week ago.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson noted Monday that risks to the labor market now outweigh upside risks to inflation, while stressing that the Fed should proceed “slowly” with any additional rate reductions. However, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that the US central bank should cut the interest rates when policymakers meet in December. Waller added that he’s grown concerned over the labor market and the sharp slowdown in hiring.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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