EUR/GBP gathers strength above 0.8750, BoE rate decision in focus
- EUR/GBP trades on a stronger note near 0.8750 in Tuesday’s early European session.
- Market pricing suggests around a one-in-three chance of a cut, with traders largely expecting the BoE to hold rates steady.
- French MPs vote against wealth tax, raising fears of political instability.
The EUR/GBP cross gains traction to near 0.8775, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early European session on Tuesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) softens against the Euro (EUR) amid uncertainty surrounding the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision, which will be scheduled on Thursday.
The BoE is anticipated to hold the interest rates at 4.0% at its November policy meeting on Thursday, although some analysts expect a potential cut after softer inflation and wage data. Markets are now pricing in a 1-in-3 chance of a quarter-point cut, according to Reuters.
Traders will closely monitor the BoE's Governor Andrew Bailey speech after the meeting, as it might offer some hints about the UK interest rate path. Any dovish comments from BoE policymakers could weigh on the GBP and create a tailwind for the cross.
On the Euro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) left its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% for a third meeting last week. ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted that the central bank is “in a good place” and further stated it will do whatever is needed to stay in such a favorable position. Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said on Monday that Eurozone economic data aren’t diverging from the ECB’s outlook, but policymakers are keeping their options open.
French PM Sebastien Lecornu's government is under pressure after the lower house of parliament rejected a wealth tax, as expected. Lecornu hopes to escape the fate of his predecessors, who were forced to resign after facing no-confidence votes over their finance plans, and another government collapse would likely lead to snap elections. Uncertainty and renewed fears of political turmoil in France could drag the EUR lower against the GBP in the near term.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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