OECD cuts US and global GDP as Trump trade war hits growth outlook

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) revised global growth down to 2.9% for 2025-2026, anticipating the fallout from the Trump administration's trade war.

Key takeaways

OECD cuts US 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.6% (previous 2.2%), trims 2026 to 1.5% (previous 1.6%).

OECD cuts global 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.9% (previous 3.1%), trims 2026 to 2.9% (previous 3.0%).

OECD maintains Euro area 2025 GDP growth forecast at 1.0%, holds 2026 at 1.2%.

OECD trims China 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.7% (previous 4.8%), lowers 2026 to 4.3%. (previous 4.4%)

OECD trims UK 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.3% (previous 1.4%), cuts 2026 to 1.0% (previous 1.2%).

OECD cuts Japan 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.7% (previous 1.1%), raises 2026 to 0.4% (previous 0.2%).