NZD/USD extends upside above 0.6000 on weaker US data
- NZD/USD gains traction to around 0.6035 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- US ISM Services PMI unexpectedly contracted in May, the first time in nearly a year.
- The RBNZ might slow the pace of rate cuts as uncertainty grows.
The NZD/USD pair extends the rally to around 0.6035 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) due to the concern over mounting economic and political uncertainty in the US economy. Investors await the Chinese Caixin Services PMI, which is due later on Thursday.
The weaker-than-expected US economic data released on Wednesday exert some selling pressure on the Greenback and create a tailwind for the pair. Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed that the US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 49.9 versus 51.6 prior. This reading came in weaker than the market expectation of 52.0.
Additionally, US ADP private sector employment rose 37,000 in May, compared to a 60,000 increase (revised from 62,000) recorded in April, missed the market expectation of 115,000 by a wide margin.
The expectation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will slow the pace of interest rate cuts as uncertainty grows could provide some support to the Kiwi. “While the RBNZ downgraded its economic forecasts compared to February and emphasized the high degree of uncertainty around global conditions, there was a surprising amount of caution around the timing and extent of further OCR cuts,” said Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon.
Investors will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US and China trade talks. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that Trump and Xi Jinping were expected to meet soon to resolve trade disputes, although on Monday there was an from China's Commerce Ministry of US accusations that Beijing violated their trade agreement. Any sign of signs of renewed trade tensions could undermine the China-proxy Kiwi as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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