The BoE is expected to hold rates at 3.75% in March: Reuters poll
A Reuters poll released on March 12 shows that economists are expecting the Bank of England (BoE) to keep interest rates on hold at its next meeting in March.
85% economists expect the bank rate to remain at 3.75% on March 19, up from 35% in the February poll. The median forecast indicates a cut in the bank rate to 3.25% by the end of September, with expectations that it will stay there until at least the end of 2026.
BoE CPI projection
In the latest BoE Monetary Policy Report published on February 5, policymakers projected CPI inflation to slow to 2.1% in 2026 Q2. But that’s before the Iran war started. The BoE will meet again on March 18 and announce its decision on March 19, while the next Monetary Policy Report will not be available until the April 30 meeting.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
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