When is the Australian CPI inflation and how could it affect AUD/USD?
The Australian CPI inflation Overview
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will publish its monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July on Wednesday at 01.30 GMT. The monthly CPI is expected to show an increase of 2.3% year-over-year (YoY) in July, compared to a 1.9% figure reported in June.
How could the Australian CPI inflation affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD trades in positive territory near a weekly high of 0.6505 in the lead up to the Australian CPI inflation report. The pair gains ground as the US Dollar weakens on fears over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence after US President Donald Trump announced he was firing a Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
If inflation comes in hotter than expected, it could lift the Australian Dollar (AUD), with the first upside barrier seen at the August 18 high of 0.6524. The next resistance level emerges at the August 7 high of 0.6541, en route to the August 13 high of 0.6562. To the downside, the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6468 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the August 5 low of 0.6450, followed by the August 21 low of 0.6415.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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