Bitcoin stabilizes near key resistance despite sustained profit taking and weak demand — Glassnode

• Bitcoin trades near $74,000, approaching the key $78,100 resistance as the market shows signs of recovery.
• Profit-taking surged as investors sold on Bitcoin's recovery attempt, with the Realized Profit/Loss ratio rising to 1.16.
• Bitcoin ETFs and CME futures have seen a modest recovery, but weak conviction and liquidity-driven trading continue to shape price action.

Bitcoin is beginning to show signs of stabilization after a prolonged period of losses, although the recovery remains fragile and lacks strong participation, according to a Glassnode report released Wednesday.

Trading around $74,000, the top crypto is 5.2% below the True Market Mean at $78,100, a key resistance level that represents the average cost basis of active on-chain supply.

However, Glassnode points to a stall in Bitcoin's price movement, attributing part of the cause to increased profit-taking. The 30-day Exponential Moving Average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has risen to 1.16, indicating that more investors are selling into recent price strength.

Only 43.2% of Short-Term Holder (STH) supply is currently in profit, below the historical average of 54.2% observed at local peaks during bear-market rallies. The metric suggests there may be room for additional gains before selling pressure intensifies.

Bitcoin spot market activity, ETF flows show a diverging trend

Demand in the spot market remains similarly uneven. Binance is seeing relatively strong activity from retail and international participants, while Coinbase continues to record more subdued flows. This divergence points to a lack of consistent conviction across market segments.

Institutional participation is gradually returning, though at a measured pace. US Bitcoin ETF flows have shifted back into positive territory following recent inflows, and open interest on CME Group futures has begun to recover from recent lows. However, both indicators remain well below levels seen during previous periods of strong risk appetite, suggesting that capital is re-entering cautiously rather than aggressively.

Glassnode added that liquidity conditions are also influencing Bitcoin's market structure. Data from Hyperliquid shows a concentration of long liquidations between $63,000 and $65,000, while short liquidations are clustered around $74,000 to $76,000.

Additional derivatives indicators reinforce the cautious outlook. Implied volatility has declined, with one-month implied volatility near 42.6%, reflecting calmer market conditions after recent turbulence. At the same time, the one-week volatility risk premium has turned negative, indicating that options markets may have underestimated the strength of the recent rally.

Dealer gamma exposure is also notably negative, at around $3 billion, concentrated between $74,000 and $76,000, creating a range where hedging activity could amplify or limit near-term price movements.

A sustained upward trend is likely to require stronger spot demand, more decisive institutional inflows and clear absorption of supply around the $78,100 level.