Gold price eases as dust settles over the market mayhem

출처 Fxstreet
  • Markets are starting to calm down after the volatile ride on Monday. 
  • A Fed rate cut in September is fully priced in while policymakers try to calm markets. 
  • The RSI is back in the middle of its range, offering room for some bulls to enter the market again. 

Gold’s price (XAU/USD) stabilizes below the $2,400 level on Wednesday after easing for two consecutive days at the beginning of the week following Monday’s market mayhem. The move comes with the US Dollar (USD) starting to gain strength again after several comments from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Wednesday morning that could leave traders rather puzzled. US yields are jumping higher, a stronger US Dollar is in play and the stock markets are behaving positively for a second day in a row. This is ideal for a cool down in Gold’s price action and room to assess what is next.

Although this soothing sentiment in markets is not ideal for the Gold price, plenty of tail risks are still to be considered. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could rip through the region into a full-fledged war at any moment. Lacklustre export data from China adds to the already poor performance in the region, and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) or its government may soon take action to boost activity, export, and economic growth again. Should US yields and its interest rate differential against other currencies widen again, XAU/USD might return to its bullish pattern from earlier this year. 

Daily digest market movers: Gold price at pivotal point 

  • Markets are further digesting and recovering from Monday’s turn of events in the different asset classes in financial markets. This Wednesday looks to be a second consecutive day of recovery this week, with several major assets heading back to their starting position pre-Monday.
  • The US 10-year yield is also recovering and even returning to 4%, trading around 3.90% on Wednesday. The interest rate differentials between the United States (US) and other major countries are widening again in favor of the Greenback.
  • At one point this week, the CME Fedwatch tool started pricing in emergency interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the Fed and its Chairman, Jerome Powell, have made it very clear on previous occasions that the central bank will not act on a single turn of events to save the day for equity markets. Concerns amongst traders on a possible Fed policy mistake are growing. 
  • The Lebanese group Hezbollah launched a series of drone and rocket attacks against Israel on Tuesday in retaliation for Israel’s reported killings of a top Hezbollah commander and Hamas leader last week. A counter-reaction from Israel is to be expected. 
  • Chinese export data showed only 7.0% growth year-over-year in July, down from 8.6% a month earlier and missing the 9.7% expected by analysts. Chinese imports rose substantially by 7.2%, above the 3.5% expected.

Technical Analysis: Gold’s bullish triangle still intact

From a technical point of view, Gold price looks to be at the right moment for a buy. Since the end of July, XAU/USD has not fallen below the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), and when it did on Monday, it bounced off the moving average to the tick. With price action now back above the green ascending trend line in the chart below, a test to the upside near the all-time high of $2,483.75 is the logical next move, where a breakout could see Gold swirl to $2,600.00.

On the downside, breaking the green ascending trend line and the 55-day SMA would mean issues ahead. The 100-day SMA might still be able to catch any excursions lower at $2,344.54. If that level gives way, a wider area opens up. Gold could lose over 2% from breaking below the 100-day SMA and heading to the pivotal support held throughout spring and summer, near $2,281.28.

XAU/USD: Daily Chart

XAU/USD: Daily Chart

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

 

면책 조항: 정보 제공 목적으로만 사용됩니다. 과거 성과가 미래 결과를 보장하지 않습니다.
placeholder
비트코인, 대칭 삼각 수렴 막바지…리플은 2달러 '안간힘'비트코인이 9만1000달러 위에서 대칭 삼각형 상단 돌파를 노리는 가운데, 이더리움은 3100달러를 회복하고 리플은 2달러 지지선을 방어하며 기술적 반등을 모색하고 있다.
저자  Mitrade팀
12 월 08 일 월요일
비트코인이 9만1000달러 위에서 대칭 삼각형 상단 돌파를 노리는 가운데, 이더리움은 3100달러를 회복하고 리플은 2달러 지지선을 방어하며 기술적 반등을 모색하고 있다.
placeholder
[국제금] "금리 내려도 겁난다"... 연준 '매파적 인하' 경계감에 4,200불 하회연준의 12월 '매파적 인하' 우려로 금 가격(XAU/USD)이 4,200달러를 하회한 가운데, 시장은 ADP·JOLTS 고용 지표와 트럼프-젤렌스키 간 지정학적 리스크에 주목하며 관망세를 유지하고 있다.
저자  Mitrade팀
12 월 09 일 화요일
연준의 12월 '매파적 인하' 우려로 금 가격(XAU/USD)이 4,200달러를 하회한 가운데, 시장은 ADP·JOLTS 고용 지표와 트럼프-젤렌스키 간 지정학적 리스크에 주목하며 관망세를 유지하고 있다.
placeholder
[국제금] "파월 입만 본다"... FOMC 앞두고 숨죽인 금, 박스권 갇혀FOMC를 앞두고 금(XAU/USD) 가격이 박스권 장세(4,163~4,250달러)를 이어가고 있다. 연준의 금리 인하 기대와 지정학적 리스크가 하단을 지지하는 가운데, 향후 방향성의 기술적 분기점을 분석한다.
저자  Mitrade팀
12 월 09 일 화요일
FOMC를 앞두고 금(XAU/USD) 가격이 박스권 장세(4,163~4,250달러)를 이어가고 있다. 연준의 금리 인하 기대와 지정학적 리스크가 하단을 지지하는 가운데, 향후 방향성의 기술적 분기점을 분석한다.
placeholder
[코인 시황] 도지코인(DOGE), 연준 훈풍에 '꿈틀'... 개미·고래 "쌍끌이 매수" 나섰다연준 금리 인하 기대에 도지코인(DOGE) 선물 미결제약정이 14.9억 달러로 급증했다. 고래 매수세 유입 속 0.1480달러 저항선 돌파 여부를 기술적으로 분석한다.
저자  Mitrade팀
21 시간 전
연준 금리 인하 기대에 도지코인(DOGE) 선물 미결제약정이 14.9억 달러로 급증했다. 고래 매수세 유입 속 0.1480달러 저항선 돌파 여부를 기술적으로 분석한다.
placeholder
[국제금] "결과는 보고 움직이자"... FOMC 대기에 4,200불 '눈치 보기'FOMC 금리 결정을 앞두고 국제 금(XAU/USD) 가격이 4,200달러 선 위에서 관망세를 이어가고 있다. 4,250달러 돌파 여부와 노동시장 지표(JOLTS) 분석을 통해 향후 전망을 진단한다.
저자  Mitrade팀
21 시간 전
FOMC 금리 결정을 앞두고 국제 금(XAU/USD) 가격이 4,200달러 선 위에서 관망세를 이어가고 있다. 4,250달러 돌파 여부와 노동시장 지표(JOLTS) 분석을 통해 향후 전망을 진단한다.
goTop
quote