Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD consolidates above $68.00; 100-SMA breakdown remains in play
- Silver is seen consolidating in a narrow range during the Asian session on Friday.
- The recent breakdown below the 100-day SMA support favors the XAG/USD bears.
- The broader technical setup also backs the case for a further depreciating move.
Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Friday and oscillates in a narrow trading band just above the $68.00 mark during the Asian session. Meanwhile, the technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the white metal remains to the downside and backs the case for an extension of the recent downfall witnessed over the past four weeks or so, from the monthly swing high.
The recent breakdown below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) – for the first time since April 2025 – was seen as a key trigger for the XAG/USD bears. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below the zero line with its latest values negative, reinforcing downside momentum despite some recent flattening. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the mid-30s, indicating weak momentum rather than outright oversold conditions and leaving room for further downside if sellers press the move.
Hence, any meaningful recovery attempt is likely to confront immediate resistance near the 100-day SMA, around $74.70. A daily close above this area would ease bearish pressure and open the way toward the $80.00 region as the next upside hurdle. On the downside, initial support is located at the recent low near $67.80, where a break would expose the mid-$60.00 zone as the next demand area in line with the broader moving-average-supported trend.
A sustained defense of $67.80 would keep the current pullback contained, while repeated failures below the 100-day SMA would maintain the focus on lower supports.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
XAG/USD daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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