Gold falls below $5,100 as rising oil prices stoke inflation concerns
- Gold price tumbles to around $5,090 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- Iran's new supreme leader vows to keep blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
- Rising oil prices could lead to prolonged inflation and potentially higher interest rates, weighing on the Gold price.
Gold price (XAU/USD) faces some selling pressure near $5,090 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal extends the decline amid a stronger US Dollar (USD) and higher Treasury yields. The release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report for January will take center stage later on Friday.
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said that the crucial Strait of Hormuz should remain closed and that Iran will continue attacks on its Persian Gulf neighbors, per Bloomberg. US President Donald Trump called Iran "a nation of terror and hate" and said the situation is "moving along very rapidly" toward his guarantee of limited military involvement in the region.
Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the Middle East situation. Any signs of a prolonged war in the region could boost a traditional safe-haven asset such as Gold in the near term.
Nonetheless, the ongoing war in the Middle East has stoked fears of inflation rising in the US, which increases the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping interest rates higher for longer. Higher rates tend to increase the relative appeal of yielding assets such as government bonds versus non-yielding precious metals like Gold.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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