WTI Price Forecast: Multi-year high above $126 looks possible
- The oil price rally intensifies after the US and Israel strike several Iranian oil depots.
- Iran names Mojtaba Khamenei as its new Supreme Leader.
- Surging oil prices prompt global inflation expectations.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, give back some of its early gains after surging almost 28% to a fresh three-and-a-half-year high at around $113.00 during the early European trading session on Monday. The oil price corrects from its intraday high after reports that G7 members and the International Energy Agency (IEA) will discuss the joint release of emergency oil reserves, a move that will offer an interim relief on supply concerns.
Still, the pair holds significant gains at around $106.00 at the press time. The oil price delivers one of its highest one-day upside moves in history as conflicts in the Middle East have stretched to oil storage facilities in Iran, sparking global supply concerns.
Over the weekend, the United States (US) and Israel, in a joint operation, attacked several Iranian depots, according to the BBC.
Oil prices were already rallying as the Iranian military stopped the flow of oil from the Strait of Hormuz, a channel through which 20% of global oil is transported.
Meanwhile, the war in the Middle East is expected to escalate further as Iran has named Mojtaba Khamenei as its new Supreme Leader. US President Donald Trump signaled last week that the choice for Iran’s new supreme leader, which is made by Iran’s clerics, would be “unacceptable”, and he intends to pick a new one for them.
Surging oil prices amid Iran conflicts have prompted consumer inflation expectations in the entire world, a scenario that would limit global central banks from easing monetary conditions in the near term.
WTI technical analysis
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WTI US Oil posts a fresh three-and-a-half year high at around $113.00 on Monday. The near-term bias is bullish as price holds well above the 10-week Exponential moving average, which is rising and currently near $74.25, underscoring a strong upside extension. The latest weekly candles mark an acceleration phase after a prolonged consolidation below the average, confirming a trend transition in favor of buyers.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 86 indicates overbought conditions, but in the context of a fresh breakout it signals strong upside momentum rather than immediate exhaustion.
Initial support emerges at the psychological $100.00 area, with a deeper pullback meeting the rising 10-week EMA around $74.25. A break below that zone would weaken the bullish structure and expose the mid-$60s congestion area from the prior range. On the topside, immediate resistance is projected near the $120.00 region, followed by the multi-year high of $126.50. As long as WTI holds above $100.00, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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