WTI surges to near $73 as Strait of Hormuz closure prompts supply shocks
- The Oil price jumps to near $$73.00 as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz prompts global supply risks.
- Iran warns of firing any ship trying to pass from Strait of Hormuz amid war with the US and Israel.
- Dovish Fed speculation has eased amid rising US factory-level inflation.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trades 2.3% higher to near $73.00 during the early European trading session on Tuesday. The oil price strengthens as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a sea route from which 20% of global crude oil is shipped, has disrupted the global oil supply mechanism.
On late Monday, an Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed and their military groups would fire on any ship trying to pass, Reuters reported.
Tehran has tightened its military activities near the Strait of Hormuz as part of its retaliation against the United States (US) for launching a series of aerial attacks and killing several of its top leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Meanwhile, US military forces have announced that they have destroyed command posts of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRG) as well as Iranian air defense and missile launch sites, a move that has cripped Tehran’s attacking capability and could force the nation to call for a truce soon.
Going forward, fading dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations for the June policy meeting could prompt concerns over the oil demand outlook in the near term.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed holding interest rates steady in the June policy meeting has increased to 53.5% from 42.7% seen on Friday.
Dovish Fed bets have squeezed after the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI report on Monday, which showed that its sub-component Prices Paid, a key measure of factory-level inflation, soared to 70.5 against estimates of 59.5 and the previous reading of 59.0.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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