WTI rises to near $60.00 on supply risks due to US sanctions
- WTI price gains ground as Lukoil PJSC reduced staff just days before new US sanctions take effect on November 21.
- Russia’s Oil exports may become stranded amid rerouting delays, worsened by India and China halting Russian crude purchases.
- Oil prices may stay under pressure as the IEA warned of an expanding global supply glut.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price gains for the second successive session, trading around $59.90, up by more than 2%, during the Asian hours on Friday. Crude Oil prices receive support from supply risks linked to upcoming United States (US) sanctions.
Lukoil PJSC has started reducing staff across its global oil-trading units just days before new sanctions take effect on November 21, making it one of the first visible signs of the coming restrictions. Analysts added that nearly a third of Russia’s seaborne oil exports could end up stranded in tankers because of rerouting and slower unloading, a problem intensified by India and China halting purchases of Russian crude.
However, Oil prices may continue to face challenges as bearish pressure persists after the International Energy Agency (IEA) flagged a widening supply glut, projecting output to exceed demand by 2.4 million barrels per day this year and 4 million next year, even as it expects consumption to keep rising through 2050.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, which has been increasing production since April, and additional supply from the US and Brazil are further amplifying oversupply concerns and dragging prices lower. OPEC’s latest monthly report pointed to a modest surplus of about 20,000 bpd next year, still a sharp pullback from earlier expectations of a significant deficit, according to Reuters calculations.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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