Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD climbs above $4,150 as US shutdown ends
- Gold price rises to around $4,185 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- Markets are bracing for a flood of delayed economic reports that could signal a slowing US economy.
- Fed officials remain cautious about further rate cuts amid concerns about inflation.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in positive territory near $4,185 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal drifts higher as traders anticipate that the reopening of the US government will restore the flow of economic data and reinforce bets of further US interest rate cuts.
A record shutdown in US history ended on Thursday after Trump signed a funding bill to reopen the government. The House of Representatives approved the bill earlier Thursday in a 222-209 vote, with nearly every Republican and a handful of Democrats voting for it. The expectation that US economic data released after the end of the shutdown will reveal US labor market weakness could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and lift the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
On Thursday, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said that the government would publish the October employment data, but without the Unemployment Rate due to the lack of a household survey that month.
On the other hand, the cautious tone from the Fed officials could undermine the yellow metal. Boston Fed President Susan Collins used cautious language to express her opinion on policy, saying that it will likely be appropriate to keep policy rates at the current level for some time to balance the inflation and employment risks in this highly uncertain environment.
Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Wednesday and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack on Thursday have also expressed a preference for holding rates steady.
Markets are now pricing in a more than 51% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point at its December meeting, down from 62.9% odds that markets priced in a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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