USD/CHF maintains position near 0.8050 despite improved Swiss Trade Balance data

• USD/CHF appreciates as the US Dollar rises amid rising odds of the Fed maintaining its interest rates in July.
• Swiss trade surplus widened to CHF 4.3 billion in June, nearly doubling from CHF 2.2 billion in the previous month.
• New York Fed President John Williams said that monetary policy is appropriately positioned.

USD/CHF appreciates around 0.50% despite an improved Swiss Trade Balance released on Thursday, trading around 0.8040 during the European hours. Switzerland’s trade surplus widened to CHF 4.3 billion in June, nearly doubling from a CHF 2.2 billion surplus in May. Exports rose 8.6% month-over-month to CHF 23 billion, while imports declined 1.5% to CHF 18.7 billion.

Traders expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to delay further easing of monetary policy following the recent Swiss inflation report for June. Earlier this month, the annual Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) inched up 0.1%, while the monthly CPI increased 0.2%. SNB officials are expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0% in September, with many analysts projecting it will likely stay at that level through 2026.

The USD/CHF pair also draws support from a stronger US Dollar (USD), driven by rising odds of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its July policy meeting. This comes following the hotter-than-expected June inflation figures from the United States (US). US Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 2.7% year-over-year in June, as expected. Core CPI rose 2.9%, though below the 3.0% forecast, but still notably above the Fed’s 2% target.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Tuesday that the Fed will probably need to leave interest rates where they are for a while longer to ensure inflation stays low in the face of upward pressure from the Trump administration's tariffs. Moreover, New York Fed President John Williams said late Wednesday that monetary policy is in the right place to allow the Fed to monitor the economy before taking its next decision.