USD/CAD strengthens to near 1.3700 amid geopolitical risks
- USD/CAD gains ground to around 1.3690 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
- Fears of US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the US Dollar.
- US Retail Sales fell more than expected in May.
The USD/CAD pair trades in positive territory near 1.3690 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) attracts some buyers amid escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. Investors will closely monitor the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday.
Israel is set to intensify its attacks on Tehran, while the United States (US) is considering expanding its role amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran. Following his early departure from the G-7 meeting in Canada on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump said that he wants a permanent end to Iran's route to nuclear weapons. The conflict has raised concerns about a wider impact on the global economy, which might boost the safe-haven currency like the Greenback in the near term.
On the other hand, the latest downbeat US economic data could exert some selling pressure on the USD. The US Census Bureau reported on Tuesday that US Retail Sales declined by 0.9% in May, compared to the 0.1% decrease (revised from +0.1%) seen in April. This reading came in worse than the market expectation for a contraction of 0.7%.
Additionally, extended gains in Crude Oil prices might lift the commodity-linked Loonie and create a headwind for the pair. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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