USD/CHF trades near 0.8080, drops to two-month lows due to rising safe-haven demand
- USD/CHF has recorded a two-month low of 0.8056 on Friday.
- The Swiss Franc receives support from safe-haven demand amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- Israeli military officials stated that Israel attacked dozens of sites across Iran to dismantle the Iranian nuclear program.
USD/CHF extends its losing streak for the third successive session, trading around 0.8070 during the Asian hours. The pair has recorded a two-month low of 0.8056 as the Swiss Franc (CHF) receives support from increased safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Israeli military officials said that Israel attacked dozens of sites across Iran, as the Iranian nuclear program is an existential threat to Israel. Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz warned his country to face a missile and drone attack following Israel's preemptive attack on Iran. Katz declared a special state of emergency in the country, per Axios.
Moreover, White House Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a statement that “Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not involved in strikes against Iran, and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region.” “President Trump and the Administration have taken all necessary steps to protect our forces and remain in close contact with our regional partners.” Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel,” Rubio added.
The risk sentiment also dampens as US President Donald Trump expanded steel tariffs starting June 23 on imported “steel derivative products” including household appliances, such as dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators, etc. The tariffs were initially imposed at 25% in March and later doubled to 50% for most countries. This is the second time the scope of affected products has been expanded.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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