USD/CHF Price Forecast: Remains capped below 100-day EMA, bearish bias prevails below 0.8200
- USD/CHF posts modest gains to around 0.8180 in Tuesday’s early European session
- The negative view of the pair prevails below the 100-day EMA with the bearish RSI indicator.
- The initial support level is seen at 0.8130; the immediate resistance level to watch is 0.8347.
The USD/CHF pair trades with mild gains near 0.8180 during the early European session on Tuesday, bolstered by a modest rebound of the US Dollar (USD). Nonetheless, tariff uncertainty and the persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost the safe-haven currency like the Swiss Franc (CHF) and create a headwind for the pair.
Technically, the bearish outlook of USD/CHF remains in play as the pair remains capped below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Furthermore, the downward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is located below the midline around 39.60, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
The lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 0.8130 acts as an initial support level for USD/CHF. A decisive break below the mentioned level could expose 0.8039, the low of April 21. Further south, the next contention level is seen at the 0.8000 psychological level.
On the bright side, the first upside barrier for the pair emerges at 0.8347, the high of May 29. Sustained trading above this level could pave the way to 0.8450, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Extended gains could see the next hurdle at 0.8542, the 100-day EMA.
USD/CHF daily chart
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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