USD/INR slumps as lower crude oil prices support Indian Rupee

출처 Fxstreet
  • Indian Rupee rebounds in Friday’s Asian session. 
  • Lower crude oil prices underpin the INR, but persistent interbank USD demand and foreign fund outflows might cap its upside. 
  • Traders await the US housing data and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index report.

The Indian Rupee (INR) recovers some lost ground, snapping the three-day losing streak on Friday. A fall in crude oil prices amid reports that the US and Iran are getting closer to a deal on the country’s nuclear program provides some support to the INR. It’s worth noting that India is the world's third-largest oil consumer, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the INR value.

However, the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand from importers and continued foreign fund outflows could weigh on the Indian currency. Later on Friday, traders brace for the US Building Permits, Housing Starts and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The Federal Reserve (Fed) official Thomas Barkin is scheduled to speak later in the same day. 

Indian Rupee gathers strength on softer crude prices

  • The dollar-rupee overnight swap rate also dipped, pointing to heightened demand for cash dollars, which typically indicates a pickup in outflows, a trader said. 
  • India has sought to clinch a trade deal with the US within the 90-day pause announced by Trump on April 9 on tariff hikes for major trading partners.
  • The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.4% YoY in April, following the 2.7% increase in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday. This figure came in below the market expectation of 2.5%.
  • The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 10 came in at 229K, compared to the previous week's revised tally of 229K (revised from 228K), according to the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This reading matched initial estimates. 
  • Continuing Jobless Claims went up by 9K to reach 1.881M for the week ending May 3.

USD/INR holds a bearish tone under the 100-day EMA

The Indian Rupee trades firmer on the day. The negative view of the USD/INR pair remains in play, characterized by the price being above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Nonetheless, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline, suggesting further consolidation or temporary recovery cannot be ruled out.

The initial support level for USD/INR emerges at 84.95, the low of April 28. A clear break below this level could drag the pair lower to 84.61, the low of May 12, followed by 84.12, the low of May 5.

On the bright side, the first upside barrier is seen at 85.60, the 100-day EMA. Green candlesticks and a clear bounce above the mentioned level could see a rally to the 86.00-86.05 zone, which marks both a round figure and the upper boundary of the trend channel. 

Indian Rupee FAQs

The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.

Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.

Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.




면책 조항: 정보 제공 목적으로만 사용됩니다. 과거 성과가 미래 결과를 보장하지 않습니다.
placeholder
비트코인, 거래소 보유량 6년 최저에도 10만7천달러 하회비트코인(BTC)은 화요일 기준 10만7천달러 아래로 하락하며, 전날에 이어 완만한 조정을 이어가고 있다. 그러나 가격 하락에도 불구하고 기관 수요는 여전히 강세를 보이고 있으며, 스트래티지(Strategy), 블록체인 그룹(Blockchain Group), 메타플래닛(Metaplanet) 등 주요 기업들은 자산 보유고에 BTC 비중을 확대하고 있다.
저자  FXStreet
12 시간 전
비트코인(BTC)은 화요일 기준 10만7천달러 아래로 하락하며, 전날에 이어 완만한 조정을 이어가고 있다. 그러나 가격 하락에도 불구하고 기관 수요는 여전히 강세를 보이고 있으며, 스트래티지(Strategy), 블록체인 그룹(Blockchain Group), 메타플래닛(Metaplanet) 등 주요 기업들은 자산 보유고에 BTC 비중을 확대하고 있다.
placeholder
시장 경계심 속 은값 36.50달러 급등은(XAG/USD)은 월요일 저점인 35.40달러선에서 반등세를 이어가며, 현재까지 장중 고점인 36.50달러까지 상승했다. 시장 전반에 경계심이 높아지는 가운데, 안전자산 수요가 증가하면서 귀금속 전반이 지지받는 흐름이다. 한편, 도널드 트럼프 전 대통령은 미·일 무역협상이 진전되지 않고 있다며 불만을 표했다.
저자  FXStreet
12 시간 전
은(XAG/USD)은 월요일 저점인 35.40달러선에서 반등세를 이어가며, 현재까지 장중 고점인 36.50달러까지 상승했다. 시장 전반에 경계심이 높아지는 가운데, 안전자산 수요가 증가하면서 귀금속 전반이 지지받는 흐름이다. 한편, 도널드 트럼프 전 대통령은 미·일 무역협상이 진전되지 않고 있다며 불만을 표했다.
placeholder
Pi Network Price Forecast: Largest token unlock in July risk further losses as Pi2Day falls flatPi Network (PI) continues to slide with a 3% drop at press time on Tuesday, printing its sixth consecutive bearish candle. The technical outlook indicates a bearish inclination in the days leading up to July’s biggest token unlock, while sentiment remains muted following the Pi2Day announcements. 
저자  FXStreet
12 시간 전
Pi Network (PI) continues to slide with a 3% drop at press time on Tuesday, printing its sixth consecutive bearish candle. The technical outlook indicates a bearish inclination in the days leading up to July’s biggest token unlock, while sentiment remains muted following the Pi2Day announcements. 
placeholder
카르다노(ADA), 채널 돌파 시도…고래 매수세가 개인 투자자 추월카르다노(ADA)는 화요일 기준 1% 하락하며, 전날 기록한 0.88% 하락에 이어 약세를 이어가고 있다. 다만, 가격은 여전히 7일 가격 밴드 내에서 횡보 흐름을 유지 중이다.
저자  FXStreet
14 시간 전
카르다노(ADA)는 화요일 기준 1% 하락하며, 전날 기록한 0.88% 하락에 이어 약세를 이어가고 있다. 다만, 가격은 여전히 7일 가격 밴드 내에서 횡보 흐름을 유지 중이다.
placeholder
XRP·SOL·LTC 현물 ETF 승인 가능성 95%로 급등…미 SEC의 GDLC 결정 앞두고 기대감 고조리플(XRP), 솔라나(SOL), 라이트코인(LTC) 등을 중심으로 현물 암호화폐 ETF 승인 가능성이 95%에 달한 것으로 나타났다.
저자  FXStreet
15 시간 전
리플(XRP), 솔라나(SOL), 라이트코인(LTC) 등을 중심으로 현물 암호화폐 ETF 승인 가능성이 95%에 달한 것으로 나타났다.
goTop
quote