Australian Dollar firms as US Jobless Claims point to steady labor market

• AUD/USD trades near 0.7030 as the Australian Dollar struggles to extend gains.
• US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 226,000, showing layoffs remain limited.
• Risk sentiment improved after the US-Iran deal with hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

The AUD/USD pair trades in a muted range near 0.7030 on Thursday, as the Australian Dollar (AUD) struggles to extend gains while the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by the latest United States (US) labor market data.

US Initial Jobless Claims fell by 4,000 to 226,000 in the week ending June 13, close to market expectations of 225,000. The data suggested that layoffs remain limited but steady and that the labor market continues to show resilience despite signs of slower hiring momentum.

Additionally, Continuing Jobless Claims rose to 1.81 million, slightly above consensus.

The report helped the Greenback stay firm as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious policy stance following its latest decision to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range.

After his first meeting as Chair, Kevin Warsh signaled that policymakers still need greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target before shifting toward a looser policy stance.

Meanwhile, the Aussie remained supported by improved risk sentiment after US President Donald Trump and Iran’s leader signed a deal on Wednesday meant to end the Middle East war, with Tehran agreeing to dilute its enriched uranium in exchange for large-scale economic relief. The agreement also marked a step toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for the global economy, helping ease fears of a deeper energy shock.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7031, keeping a bearish near-term bias as the pair holds beneath both the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 0.7054 and 0.7092, respectively. The price is effectively testing a horizontal pivot around 0.7031 after failing to sustain rebounds, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 46 suggests only modest downside momentum rather than a decisive oversold condition, leaving the pair vulnerable to further pressure while below the nearby resistance cluster.

On the topside, initial resistance appears at 0.7041, with the 20-period SMA at 0.7054 and the horizontal barrier at 0.7060 forming a tight cap ahead of the more significant 100-period SMA near 0.7092. On the downside, the immediate pivot at 0.7031 marks the first level to watch, and a clear break lower would expose the next horizontal support around 0.7018, where buyers may attempt to slow the decline.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)