Forex Today: US Dollar stays neutral as markets await Warsh’s first Fed decision
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, June 17:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades with a weaker tone near the 99.50 level as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision, the first under Kevin Warsh as Chair. The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates unchanged, but markets will closely watch the updated statement, projections, and Warsh’s press conference for clues.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.17% | -0.11% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.03% | -0.23% | -0.18% | |
| EUR | 0.17% | 0.07% | 0.24% | 0.19% | 0.19% | -0.05% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.11% | -0.07% | 0.17% | 0.13% | 0.12% | -0.11% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | -0.24% | -0.17% | -0.04% | -0.04% | -0.24% | -0.21% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | -0.19% | -0.13% | 0.04% | 0.00% | -0.23% | -0.20% | |
| AUD | -0.03% | -0.19% | -0.12% | 0.04% | -0.01% | -0.23% | -0.18% | |
| NZD | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.11% | 0.24% | 0.23% | 0.23% | 0.05% | |
| CHF | 0.18% | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.21% | 0.20% | 0.18% | -0.05% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD trades higher above the 1.1610 area as the Euro extends gains ahead of the Fed decision.
GBP/USD trades with a neutral tone near the 1.3430 region after briefly climbing above 1.3440 earlier in the day.
USD/JPY stays elevated around the 160.40 zone despite the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising interest rates to 1.00% from 0.75%. The Yen failed to gain strong support as the BoJ maintained a gradual approach and signaled caution regarding bond market normalization.
AUD/USD trades muted near the 0.7070 after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 4.35%. The RBA kept a hawkish bias and warned that further hikes remain possible if inflation stays elevated.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slumped over 4%, trading near $77.10 per barrel.
Gold holds firm above the $4,340 area as traders position ahead of the Fed decision. The precious metal remains supported by geopolitical uncertainty and expectations that Warsh’s first meeting could shape the next leg in US yields and the Greenback.
What’s next in the docket:
Wednesday, June 17:
- UK CPI (May)
- UK PPI (May)
- UK Retail Price Index (May)
- Eurozone HICP (May)
- US Fed Interest Rate Decision
- New Zealand GDP (Q1)
Thursday, June 18:
- Switzerland SNB Financial Stability Report
- UK Employment Data (Apr/May)
- Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision
- Germany Buba Monthly Report
- UK BoE Interest Rate Decision
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Jun)
- New Zealand Westpac Consumer Survey (Q2)
- New Zealand Trade Balance (May)
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Jun)
- Japan National CPI (May)
- Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Friday, June 19:
- Germany PPI (May)
- UK Retail Sales (May)
- Canada Retail Sales (Apr)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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