EUR/USD trades above 1.1700 after paring latest losses
- EUR/USD remains subdued ahead of the German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey release.
- US–Iran peace talks stalled after Trump canceled a Pakistan delegation for potential negotiations.
- Trump was escorted off stage by the Secret Service after possible shots at White House Correspondents’ Dinner.
EUR/USD edges higher after opening from levels below the previous close, remaining in the negative territory and trading around 1.1710 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair faced challenges as the Euro (EUR) depreciated amid fragile peace talks in the Middle East. Traders will likely observe the German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey later in the day.
US-Iran peace talks were stalled after US President Donald Trump called off that delegation to Pakistan to potentially discuss directly with Iran, Bloomberg reported on Sunday. "If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us. You know, there is a telephone. We have nice, secure lines," said Trump.
Trump on Saturday told Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to skip the trip to Pakistan, which is mediating talks, saying that Iran “offered a lot, but not enough. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that his nation won’t enter “imposed negotiations under threats or blockade.”
CNN reported that President Trump was swiftly escorted off the stage by Secret Service after possible shots were fired at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in Washington, DC, on Saturday. Vice President JD Vance and several members of Trump’s Cabinet, who were also in attendance, were also rushed out.
The US Dollar receives support from safe-haven demand as the ceasefire is under growing pressure, as Israel and Hezbollah have increased attacks on each other despite a US-brokered extension to the peace deal that was supposed to halt fighting for three more weeks.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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