NZD/USD rebounds toward 0.5900 following Trade Balance data, PBoC decision

• NZD/USD trims losses after New Zealand posted NZD 698 million March Trade Surplus.
• The People’s Bank of China left one- and five-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.
• US Dollar gained as markets priced the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance amid persistent inflation and Middle East tensions.

NZD/USD pares its daily losses, trading around 0.5880 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair pares its daily losses following the release of New Zealand’s trade balance data, which showed a surplus of NZD 698 million month-over-month (MoM) in March, swinging from a deficit of NZD 365 million in February.

Moreover, the annual trade deficit was NZD 3.2 billion in March, against the NZD 3.1 billion in the previous month. Exports rose 7.3% year-on-year to a record high of NZD 7.94 billion in March 2026. Meanwhile, Imports increased 9.6% to NZD 7.25 billion.

In New Zealand’s close trading partner, China, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Monday. The one-year and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.

The NZD/USD pair comes under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) draws support from heightened safe-haven demand amid re-escalating United States (US)–Iran tensions. Iranian state media, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), reported that Tehran has refused to resume talks with US officials, citing “unrealistic expectations,” among other concerns.

Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz blocked since the US and Israeli strikes on February 28. Although authorities briefly signaled a reopening on Friday, they reversed the decision on Saturday after US President Donald Trump declined to lift the blockade on Iranian ports.

US President Trump confirmed on Truth Social that US representatives will travel to Islamabad for negotiations with Iran on Monday. However, he also criticized Tehran’s move to re-close the Strait and reiterated threats to target Iranian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges.