AUD/USD snaps winning streak below 0.72 as Aussie jobs disappoint
- Australian Employment Change rose just 17.9K in March, missing the 20K consensus and well below February's 49.7K print.
- Markets remain fixated on the Iran conflict as the Strait of Hormuz closure and blockade raise fresh inflation risks.
AUD/USD snapped a three-day winning streak on Thursday, finishing nearly flat close to 0.7165 after failing to clear the 0.7200 handle earlier in the session. Price carved out a session high near 0.7200 before reversing in the North American afternoon, with the pair settling back into the broader consolidation zone that has defined recent price action. Candle structure points to hesitation at the 0.7200 round number, with small bodies and upper wicks signaling sellers defending the level.
Australian labor data provided little support for the Aussie, with Employment Change rising 17.9K in March against the 20K consensus, a sharp deceleration from February's 49.7K print. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, while Consumer Inflation Expectations ticked up to 5.9% from 5.2%. The mixed report did little to shift the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) outlook but removed a potential tailwind for Aussie bulls ahead of a light Friday calendar.
On the US Dollar side, focus remains squarely on the Iran conflict that began with US-led strikes at the end of February. President Trump reiterated on Thursday that the US is close to securing a deal to end the conflict, alongside claims of a forthcoming Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, though markets are treating both with skepticism. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, now including a US-backed blockade counterintuitively aimed at forcing its reopening, is raising fresh concerns that sustained supply disruption will feed into global inflation pressures in the weeks ahead.
AUD/USD 15-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the fifteen-minute chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7164, holding below today’s open at 0.7174, which keeps the near-term tone slightly capped despite the latest bounce. The elevated Stochastic RSI around 89 signals overbought intraday momentum, suggesting that upside attempts could struggle while price remains under the day’s opening level.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the day’s open at 0.7174, and a sustained break above this hurdle would be needed to ease the immediate bearish pressure. On the downside, the lack of nearby mapped supports from moving averages or prior structural levels in this dataset leaves the pair vulnerable to a deeper pullback if buyers fail to defend the current area.
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7163, maintaining a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above both the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6995 and the 200-day EMA at 0.6770. The alignment of price well above these trend metrics hints at a sustained upside phase, although the Stochastic RSI at an overbought 96 suggests that bullish momentum is stretched and the pair could be vulnerable to a corrective pause or shallow pullback rather than an immediate continuation.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day EMA near 0.6995, with a deeper floor at the 200-day EMA around 0.6770 if selling accelerates. As long as AUD/USD holds above these moving averages, dips are likely to be treated as buying opportunities, while overbought momentum readings argue for cautious positioning on fresh longs at current levels.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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